Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
653 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH
IN THE KGRI AREA LATE THIS EVENING...AND LINGER THROUGH SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WITH THE
STORMS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN AS MOISTURE SURGES
NORTH...BUT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
TAKE HOLD BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010/

SHORT TERM...THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SURGED BACK NORTH...WITH 70 DEGREES SURFACE
DEWPOINTS UP TO THE KANSAS BORDER. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH STRONG CAP IS HOLDING. CU FIELD
IN NORTHERN KANSAS IS RIGHT NEAR THE FRONT. THE NORTHERN CWFA IS A
DIFFERENT STORY...WITH MIDDLE 50S DEWPOINTS AND PLEASANT LOWER 80S
TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS AT WEAK PERTURBATION IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SORT OF AN EXTENSION OF STRONGER PART OF WAVE
MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS.

ESSENTIALLY...WE ARE WAITING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK THE STRONG
CAP. THAT LOOKS LIKE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. IF/WHEN STORMS DEVELOP...THERE WILL QUICKLY BE SEVERE
WITH CAPES ABOUT 3K MOVING INTO THE AREA...GOOD SHEAR...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND INITIATION POINT...BUT HAVE INCLUDED
SEVERE WORDING WITH HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL FEED INTO THE SYSTEM EARLY ON...BUT VEER OFF
FURTHER EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. THAT SHOULD START TO TAKE THE
STORMS EAST OVERNIGHT...AND LESSEN CWFA STORM COVERAGE AND TAKE
HEAVY RAIN WITH IT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY...AND SHARE
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AT LEAST UP TO INTERSTATE 80. TEMPERATURES
OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CWFA. HARD TO THINK IT WON/T BE AT
LEAST BREEZY SOUTH OF THE FRONT SUNDAY. NORTHER CWFA WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS WARM...BUT WARMER THAN TODAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO BE 60 TO 100 MILES NORTH AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A FOCAL POINT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT STILL BATTLING A STRONG CAP TO FORM. THE
NORTHERN CWFA APPEARS MORE IN LINE FOR ANY SEVERE RISK SUNDAY...
NOT ONLY FROM THE FRONTAL ZONE BUT ALSO FROM THUNDERSTORMS
ROLLING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. DIDN/T
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FORECAST.

LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z MONDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
UPON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND WARM TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR
TODAYS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THUS PRESENTING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...BUT MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WORKING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PRESENT
ADDITIONAL DPVA AND WAA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA. FINALLY...OVERNIGHT LLJ ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WILL LIKELY
PRESENT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION FOR
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT ABOVE CLIMO
LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING IN AND 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20 DEGREES C. CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR NORTH...AND IN THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 ACROSS OUR SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
538 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
201200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
538 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...ALONG
A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND A FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILE NEAR THE FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH. THROUGH THE EVENING...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO POSE A HYDROLOGIC
RISK...AND HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOODING RISK.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL EAST IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A LESSER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE ARE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY FAVORING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S...AND AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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