Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
641 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WEAK CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY EAST/NORTHEAST OF GRAND ISLAND...DON/T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR KGRI...AND THUS ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
ARE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. THICKER CIRRUS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT... AND SNEAK ABOVE 12KTS
FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

AVIATION...18Z TAF. SLIGHT RISK FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE KGRI
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SO ISOLATED AND
LIMITED...CAN/T SEE ADDING ANYTHING TO THE TAF RIGHT NOW. WILL
WATCH AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE ITS PRETTY MUCH VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010/

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE EXTREME HEAT TOMORROW...AS
WELL AS THE SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE NEXT TWO EVENINGS.

THE HOT MUGGY AIR HAS RETURNED TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE CWA. AFTERNOON HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 4000 J/KG. HOWEVER...FORCING
IS CURRENTLY VERY WEAK AND HENCE THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. DIURNAL HEATING COULD
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE A RATHER
WEAK SET UP. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH LOW END CHANCE
POPS AT BEST FOR THIS MARGINAL SETUP. DEEP LAYER SHEER VALUES
AROUND 35 KTS IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP.

THE STORY FOR MUCH OF TOMORROW WILL THEN TURN TO THE VERY HOT
CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS
NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 100S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATION. THE NET RESULT WITH BE HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES. THEREFORE...A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVE TO BE A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA WHERE THE
CAP IS WEAKER. DUE TO THE STRONG CAP...WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CARRY
SLIGHT POPS AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z SUNDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
UPON CHANCES  FOR PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED WARM WEATHER. LONG
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ONE HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH
TUESDAY. STARTING WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS. AS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA THE JET
STREAM AXIS WILL ALSO PUSH NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JETS CONTINUE
IMPACTING THE REGION. THE OPERATIONAL GFS THEN INDICATES THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS IN BY MID NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE EC SUGGESTS A LINGERING
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY STILL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED. INHERITED FORECAST HAD DRY CONDITIONS AFTER TUESDAY AND
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY...WILL GO AHEAD
AND STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING IT DRY WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CLEARS THE CWA...THUS PRESENTING A RELATIVELY COOLER AIR
MASS AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH BEGINNING TUESDAY...THUS SIGNALING A
RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OBVIOUSLY IF THE EC SOLUTION VERIFIES...THUS KEEPING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED. HOWEVER...AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...WILL STAY WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AND KEEP THINGS
WARM AND DRY TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

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