Areal Flood Warning 21, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
710 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED
SOUTH OF KGRI AND THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE FRONT IMPACTING KGRI BY LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS FROM THESE STORMS. HAVE KEPT CLOUD HEIGHTS IN THE
MVFR TO VFR CATEGORY WITH WINDS FROM AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BUT WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND VARIABLE
DURING STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  FOCUS IS ON SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.  EARLY AFTN SFC LOW
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED NORTHEAST THRU WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS FRONTAL POSITION IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
PROGGED FOR TODAY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION
ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DPS IN
THE LOWER 70S AND LATEST LAPS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF
4000 J/KG ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA AND SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
40KTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CU FIELD DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SHLD JUST BE A MATTER OF TIME
BEFORE TSTMS REDEVELOP...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
AND VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
PROGGED FROM AN INCH AND A HALF TO JUST OVER TWO INCHES TONIGHT
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING. WE HAD SOME RAIN AMOUNTS OVER 3.75 INCHES IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING AND HIGH RIVER
LEVELS. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z MONDAY AND WILL EXTEND THIS TO OUR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES GIVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH FRONTAL POSITION.
THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 45KTS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SUSTAIN CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS. TIMING OF TSTMS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW IS NOT IN AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE 12Z SPC
WRF SUGGESTING THAT CONVECTION WILL RAPIDLY LIFT OUT AFTER 06Z
MONDAY WHEREAS THE NAM HOLDS ONTO CONVECTION INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MODELS AGAIN ATTEMPT TO LIFT THE FRONT TO
THE NEB BORDER...BUT WE WILL SEE. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING/NIGHT ALONG AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE SIMILAR AND SEVERE
WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON FRONTAL POSITION AND REMNANT CLOUD COVER WITH MAINLY 80S
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT AND 90S TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES.

SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE DAY AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE.

BY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT SINKS TO THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER WAVE IS
MOVING TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DONE AND THE DAY LOOKS
LIKE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT ACROSS KANSAS
AGAIN EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER WAVE IS THE STRONGEST DURING THAT TIME. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN EXPECT A BIT OF A BREAK DURING
THE DAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
WARM SIDE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIR
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AND DESPITE A FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
853 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
220200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
853 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD MESSAGE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ON...WITH LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 MPH BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE ARE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY FAVORING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S
TO AROUND 100...AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 105
DEGREES ARE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
846 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

NEZ039-040-046-210230-
GREELEY NE-SHERMAN NE-VALLEY NE-
846 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SHERMAN...EASTERN VALLEY
AND WESTERN GREELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 844 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHERMAN RESERVOIR DAM...OR
13 MILES SOUTH OF ORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ORD...
  NORTH LOUP...
  SCOTIA...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4173 9880 4154 9853 4133 9894 4142 9915
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 221DEG 15KT 4142 9895

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
904 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEBANON                 39.81N 98.56W
06/20/2010  E70 MPH          SMITH              KS   PUBLIC

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 70 MPH. ALSO REPORTED 1.15
            INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

ODER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
911 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SUPERIOR                40.02N 98.07W
06/20/2010                   NUCKOLLS           NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A FEW POWER POLES AND NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN IN
            TOWN. STREETS IN TOWN AND PART OF HIGHWAY 14 REPORTED
            BLOCKED BY DOWNED POLES AND TREES. ONE BUILDING IN TOWN
            SUSTAINED ROOF DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

ODER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
914 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEBBER                  39.93N 98.04W
06/20/2010  E65 MPH          JEWELL             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60 TO 65 MPH BETWEEN WEBBER AND
            LOVEWELL STATE PARK. NEAR LOVEWELL STATE PARK 1.52 INCHES
            OF RAIN FELL IN 35 MINUTES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

ODER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
916 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GREELEY                 41.55N 98.53W
06/20/2010  M1.75 INCH       GREELEY            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL FELL IN 45 MINUTES

&&

KING

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