Tornado Warning 7, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
247 PM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY GOING OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AHEAD OF THE
WAVE. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD INTO CWA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFTED INDEX
AT MINUS 7C WITH CAPE OF 1500 J/KG IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
EVEN WITHOUT SEVERE CONVECTION...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED SO
WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

LOW LIFTS INTO SASKATCHEWAN LATER TONIGHT BUT DISORGANIZED UPPER
TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH VORTICITY
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS IN THE MOIST AIRMASS.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
MONTANA. EBERT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT
STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
CREATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND INSTABILITY
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE ALONG THE FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING
GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY A THERMAL RIDGE WILL INCREASE
HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE UPPER 80S SO DID INCREASE
THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND EMBEDDED
IN STRATIFORM RAIN.

AT THIS POINT THE 12Z RUN AND THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS TEND TO
DISAGREE ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON SATURDAY. OOZ GFS KEEPS EASTERN
MONTANA UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF TROFFINESS WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS THE
UPPER TROF FURTHER TO THE NORTH SO MONTANA WILL BE UNDER ZONAL
FLOW. IT ALSO BRING DRIER AIR INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND PUSHING THE
QPF INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE OOZ ECMWF KEEPS EASTERN MONTANA UNDER
THE AREA OF TROFFINESS AND QPF OVER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING LIKE
THE 00Z GFS. THE 12Z GEM AGREES WITH THE DRIER ZONAL FLOW OF THE
12Z GFS FOR SATURDAY. WITH THIS MUCH DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES PAST SATURDAY. THE BROAD BRUSHED POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND ARE FINE FOR NOW. THE MODELS DID AGREE ON ZONAL FLOW
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SO DID DROP THE POPS BELOW 15% DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. RSMITH

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. DECENT
SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE VARIED FROM BEING ZONAL TO
HAVING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS POINT...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EITHER WAY...EXPECT FREQUENT
SHORTWAVES WITH VARYING STRENGTHS. ANYONE OF THEM COULD PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE SHORTWAVES. WITH
THE WET PATTERN OF LATE...NOT READY TO GO DRY FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD.
WILL BROAD BRUSH FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AND THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN...HAIL AND STRONG ERRATIC THUNDERSTORMS
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...SO EXPECT PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER OF
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. RSMITH

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
BUT ARE GENERALLY CONTAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN
HEAVY RAIN WHICH WOULD PUSH AFFECTED STREAMS BACK OUT OF THEIR
BANKS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...SHERIDAN...
WESTERN ROOSEVELT...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...
NORTHERN VALLEY...EASTERN ROOSEVELT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PETROLEUM...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...RICHLAND...DAWSON...PRAIRIE...WIBAUX.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
332 AM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

MTZ021>027-220900-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-
332 AM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ016>020-059>062-220900-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
332 AM MDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
SINCE CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING NEAR CAPACITY A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED BEGINNING TODAY AT NOON AND LASTING THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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