Tornado Warning 12, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
611 PM MDT MON JUL 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES TO OUR
EASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVIDENCES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS THEY MOVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
EASILY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR CWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. NEWLY ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK AS RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY HOLDS TOGETHER WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ADVISORY BEGINS
AT 03Z...THE STRONGER WINDS MAY NOT REACH FORT PECK LAKE UNTIL 04Z
OR 05Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 12Z.
HEIGHT FALL AND HEIGHT RISE COUPLET SLIDES EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT...FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT FOR NE
MONTANA. TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS.

AS UPPER LOW PINWHEELS EAST OF OUR CWA LATER TUESDAY...THE MAIN
FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL COME FROM SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION. THIS WILL STEER ANY STORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING
MOST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM OUR CWA. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...00Z KGGW SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG
WARMING AT ALL LEVELS BELOW 600 MB WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE
DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE SUCH WHICH WILL PRODUCE LIKELY THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

A DISTURBANCE IN IDAHO THAT PRODUCED QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION
OVER OR AND NV LAST EVENING IS HEADING OUR WAY...BUT WILL TURN IN
MORE OF A E DIRECTION. THIS IS DUE TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW THIS IS
MOVING SE ACROSS N SK...A STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE UPPER PATTERN
IN OUR AREA. THIS WILL DRIVE A DEVELOPING FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
FROM THE N THIS EVE. BEST INSTABILITY IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMICS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY LOW LEVELS EXPECT  GUSTY WINDS
WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT THRU THE REST
OF THE NIGHT WITH INCREASED COOL ADVECTION. MOST MODELS SHOW AT
LEAST 20KT WIND FOR A FEW HOURS 900-850 MB MON NIGHT AND TUE MORN.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...TYPICALLY A PATTERN THOUGH FOR THE
QUICKER SOLUTIONS. SHOULD PRODUCE A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER WITH
COOL ADVECTION TO MIX TO JUST SHORT OF 850 MB. THIS MAY REQUIRE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. TIME ENOUGH FOR LETTING THE DAY SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT AND FOR TIMING...BUT WILL SEND AN HWO FOR
THAT POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WITH COOL ADVECTION THRU TUE WILL DROP
HIGHS BY AROUND 15F WITH DIMINISHING WIND BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL A FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR S FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THERE...STEERED AWAY FROM MOST OF THE CWA TH0UGH BY PATH OF UPPER
LOW OVER CANADA.

CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGS MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS FOR WED...WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SIMONSEN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED FORECAST...LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. NO ONE
SIGNIFICANT EVENT STANDS OUT OVER ANOTHER BUT SATURDAY COULD BE A
BIT WINDY ACROSS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST WARD AND A LEE SIDE TROF STARTS DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH THE MAIN LOW IN NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE
TROF SWINGS THROUGH NEMONT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
LOW TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS START DIVERGING
QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THOUGH. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A RESULTING LEE SIDE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WITH A MINOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND NO SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH. EITHER WAY...THE PATTERN COULD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH. OVERALL...CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS...POPS AND WINDS. FRANSEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH FREQUENT SHORTWAVES. THERE WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY
UPPER TROUGH ON THE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH OVER
THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SITTING AROUND TEXAS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. MONTANA
WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
TRAVEL NORTH UP THE WEST COAST AND AFFECT MONTANA PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOST OF THE TIME. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL
WAVES WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND
ALONG WITH THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ND BORDER. KGDV HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN AS IT STALLS OUT IN SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FEEDS INTO THE AREA.
FRANSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
259 PM MDT MON JUL 26 2010

MTZ016-017-021>023-271200-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
259 PM MDT MON JUL 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS FORT PECK LAKE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
657 PM MDT MON JUL 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             E FLAXVILLE             48.80N 105.17W
07/26/2010  M2.00 INCH       DANIELS            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL TO HEN EGG SIZED HAIL

&&

RSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
703 PM MDT MON JUL 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             NW NAVAJO               48.79N 105.06W
07/26/2010  M3.00 INCH       DANIELS            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AT 650 PM. THREE
            INCH HAIL OCCURRED AT 655 PM. TOTAL RAINFALL OF 0.88.

&&

TEDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
708 PM MDT MON JUL 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TORNADO          SW SCOBEY               48.79N 105.42W
07/26/2010                   DANIELS            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO TOUCH DOWN HALF MILE NORTH OF SCOBEY BREIFLY.
            FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL MINUTES BEFORE TOUCH
            DOWN.

&&

RSMITH