Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW SITUATED OVER CHILDLESS AND CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING FORECAST IS
IN REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO MCKINNEY TO CANTON WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...SNOW SHOULD BE
LIGHTER WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A TRACE AND 2 INCHES. TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING...AND WARM GROUNDS MEAN MOST ROADS WILL
REMAIN WET...EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIER SNOW AREA IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.
ONE OF THE IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...BUT ALL IN ALL EXPECT A RATHER LOW
IMPACT EVENT FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ADVISORY FROM GRAHAM INTO
THE METROPLEX.

WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED NW OF THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 12Z NAM /WHICH WAS DISCARDED/...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ALL SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT CENTER BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NE INTO THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE FINALLY ENDING WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THERE IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY OF A HEAVY SNOW WARNING BEING ISSUED FOR THE PARIS
REGION FOR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES...BUT THE CURRENT 3-4
INCH AMOUNT FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL PERFECT PROG DATA
FROM GLOBAL MODELS AND SREF MEAN. SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE WACO AREA TONIGHT BUT ACCUMULATING
SNOWS BECOME LESS LIKELY SOUTH OF I-20.

VERY GRADUAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT IN THE
SW ZONES AND SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. AS FAR
AS LOW TEMPS...A LIGHT FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT...BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE SAVED FROM A
DAMAGING LATE SEASON FREEZE BY THE CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG ALL EVENING AND THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REGARDLESS...A WIND ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED TOMORROW WHEN DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL OCCUR. SOME GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SUNNY SOUTHWEST ZONES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-15 MPH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARMING THERMAL PROFILES VIA SUBSIDENCE. THE
WEAK MIXING OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT SHOULD COUNTER THE
RADIATIVE HEAT LOSS FROM CLEAR SKIES...AND AGAIN EXPECT MOST OF
THE AREA TO BE SAVED FROM A HARD FREEZE.

A RAPID WARM UP WILL OCCUR BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...AND IT LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  32  45  34  66  43 /  40  20   0   0   0
WACO, TX              33  54  33  69  40 /   5   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             32  38  31  56  36 /  80  70  10   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  43  32  65  39 /  50  20   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  41  31  62  36 /  50  50   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            32  44  34  65  42 /  40  20   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           33  43  33  62  39 /  40  40   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         33  45  34  66  41 /  10  10   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            32  57  34  71  39 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>119-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR TXZ094-095-105>107-120>123.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ093-104.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR TXZ118-119.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
310 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
GRAHAM TO FORT WORTH TO CANTON LINE. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
RED RIVER WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH...AMOUNTS
BETWEEN A TRACE AND 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH LATE
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AREAS OF SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.