Tornado Warning 49, NWS Fort Worth, TX

941 
WWUS54 KFWD 242336
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
636 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

TXC379-250015-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-101025T0015Z/
RAINS TX-
636 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR RAINS
COUNTY...

AT 636 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
EMORY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG CIRCULATION WAS 
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF EMORY...ALSO MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3280 9589 3281 9591 3299 9593 3299 9590
      3299 9567 3296 9565 3280 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 252DEG 37KT 3295 9564

$$

568 
WWUS54 KFWD 250000
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

TXC379-250010-
/O.CAN.KFWD.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-101025T0015Z/
RAINS TX-
700 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR RAINS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 700 PM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE TORNADO
WARNING HAS EXITED THE AREA...THUS THE WARNING WAS CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3280 9589 3281 9591 3299 9593 3299 9590
      3299 9567 3296 9565 3280 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 252DEG 37KT 3303 9536

$$


CAVANAUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
438 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

.UPDATE...
ADDED DELTA...FANNIN...AND LAMAR TO TORNADO WATCH 707. UPDATED
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010/

THROUGH TONIGHT...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 707 IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG A DFW TO
HILLSBORO TO KILLEEN LINE WHERE SOME ENHANCED CUMULUS HAS
DEVELOPED BASED ON 1930Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUST EAST OF
THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS LOCALLY CALCULATED PARAMETERS
INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2500 J/GK OF MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OF 45 KTS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
LINE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THEY WILL QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN VEERED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OF
15 TO 20 DEG F...SO THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH.
HOWEVER...SUPERCELLS ARE LARGE AND STRONG ENOUGH FEATURES TO HAVE
A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HRS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY 03Z AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT THAT WHATEVER TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WILL
EITHER MOVE OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR DISSIPATE A COUPLE OF
HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

ON MONDAY...A VERY POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS FORECAST
FOR H500 HEIGHTS RANKS AS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BASED
ON HPC/S STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES PAGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEEP/RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING
CYCLONE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WOULD BE MORE OF
A CONCERN IF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WERE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN APPEARS TO BE FIRE WEATHER
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG A DFW TO KILLEEN LINE. WEST OF THE DRYLINE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW 30 PERCENT. LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CREATE HIGH OR VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS FOR LOCATIONS
PRIMARILY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...FUELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BURN EASILY...THEREFORE NO
FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR WARNING WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

EAST OF THE DRYLINE...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED LARGELY BECAUSE
OF WARM AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE
PROVIDING A STOUT CAP FOR ANY POTENTIAL TSTM INITIATION. BECAUSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE FIRE DANGER WILL BE
LOWER EAST OF THE DRYLINE DESPITE SIMILAR LOW LEVEL WIND
INTENSITY.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS IT WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTH THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THRU MUCH
OF NORTH TX JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE
BETTER LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH SOME MEAGER UPPER LVL SUPPORT EXISTS.
OTHERWISE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA WITHOUT
CAUSING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THRU THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE
SCOURED OUT SOUTH OF THE REGION DUE TO MONDAY NIGHT/S COLD
FRONT...ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THIS FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITHOUT ANY LARGE STORM SYSTEMS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  90  57  79  57 /  10   5  10   5   5
WACO, TX              66  90  61  83  56 /  30   5   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             61  88  58  77  53 /  30   5  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            59  88  53  78  53 /  10   5  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          58  87  54  77  53 /  30   5  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            64  89  60  78  58 /  20   5  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           64  88  60  80  54 /  30   5  10  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         66  87  63  83  57 /  30   5  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            66  88  64  84  57 /  30   5   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     54  91  52  79  54 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
245 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
245 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRIMARILY IN AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
519 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HAIL             AVALON                  32.20N  96.78W
10/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       ELLIS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN AVALON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             DEPORT                  33.52N  95.32W
10/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       LAMAR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND IN
            DEPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
528 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             3 SE AVALON             32.17N  96.74W
10/24/2010  E2.75 INCH       ELLIS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AVALON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
538 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             COMMERCE                33.25N  95.90W
10/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       HUNT               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN COMMERCE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
553 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     HAIL             LONE OAK                33.00N  95.93W
10/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       HUNT               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN LONE OAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
557 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     HAIL             4 S OTTO                31.39N  96.82W
10/24/2010  E1.75 INCH       FALLS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS GOLFBALL HAIL 4 MILES SOUTH OF OTTO