Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Fort Worth, TX

965 
WWUS84 KFWD 252351
RFWFWD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 PM CST MON JAN 25 2010

TXZ091>095-101>107-116>120-260100-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100126T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-
DELTA-HOPKINS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
551 PM CST MON JAN 25 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. 

WINDS HAVE WEAKENED BELOW 20 MPH THIS EVENING...AND THE RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1130 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES... WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET.  WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AFTER 12Z AND SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE
WILL BE OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL HAVE NO AVIATION
IMPACTS.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENT
WAS TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AREA WIDE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCE
FOR WINTER PRECIP/SNOW ON THURSDAY. THE NEW GFS HAS COME IN COLDER
AND MORE EXPANSIVE WITH ITS PRECIP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE EVALUATE ADDITIONAL DATA AS IT COMES IN.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010/

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE HOLDS OVER NORTH TX TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LOOKS TO TRANSITION TO A ZONAL PATTERN BY TUESDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN
CA COAST. DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER NORTH TX THIS EVENING BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE IN PLACE SEE NO
OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH. AFTER 18 HRS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
RETURNING TO THE REGION. ANTICIPATE A STRATUS DECK TO ACCOMPANY
THIS INITIALLY SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN...BUILDING INTO NORTH TX
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY NIGHT MAKING
FOR A MILD NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PERSISTENT LOW LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING US INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN THE WAA REGIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE
STRONG UPPER LVL TROUGH LOOKS TO SPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER NORTH TX INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE ACROSS
THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME A POLAR VORTEX NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST SENDING A VERY COLD AIRMASS SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. WITH CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE POLAR AIRMASS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A TIGHT LOW LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO SET
UP JUST NORTHWEST OF NORTH TX BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY THE
SFC LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF IT
SENDING THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH THRU NORTH TX AS A STRONG COLD FRONT.
AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE SPREAD 70 TO 80 POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT. BASED ON
25/00Z MODEL RUNS THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL OFFERED DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS WAS ABOUT 6
HRS FASTER WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...BUT CHOSE TO BLEND
SOLUTIONS RATHER THAN BASE FORECAST ON ONE OR THE OTHER WITH THE
FRONT STILL 3-4 DAYS OUT.

AS THE POLAR AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTH TX FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS
THE LOW LVL AIRMASS LOOKS VERY DRY AT THIS TIME. FOR AREAS NEAR
THE RED RIVER MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO SOME MOISTURE WRAPPED UP
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND OVER THE LOW LVL POLAR
AIRMASS. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. AT THIS
TIME ONLY A NARROW SATURATED LAYER LOOKS TO HOLD OVER NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA...SO ANTICIPATE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT ACCUMULATE. IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SINK
FURTHER SOUTH NORTHERN COUNTIES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE TROWAL WHICH COULD GIVE SOME AREAS A CHANCE AT
ACCUMULATION. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...NO OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY YET SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW LATE ON THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITHOUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT APPROACHES FOR ANY
SIGNS OF HIGHER IMPACT WINTER WEATHER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER NORTH TX KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH VERY DRY
LOW LVL AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO BRING
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER AS POLAR
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND AIRMASS BEGINS TO QUICKLY MODIFY
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

EXTENDED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY. MOISTURE RECOVER LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME SO
ONLY HAVE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  35  60  47  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
WACO, TX              63  34  63  51  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
PARIS, TX             55  33  58  43  60 /   0   0   0   5  30
DENTON, TX            57  29  59  47  62 /   0   0   0  10  30
MCKINNEY, TX          57  32  59  47  62 /   0   0   0  10  30
DALLAS, TX            58  39  60  49  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
TERRELL, TX           58  36  61  48  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
CORSICANA, TX         61  37  62  50  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
TEMPLE, TX            64  36  64  51  64 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
400 AM CST MON JAN 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

25