Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2010

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS DUE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE LLJ INCREASES IN SPEED AND BRINGS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. SKIES WILL INITIALLY GO MVFR BEFORE DECREASING TO IFR.
CIGS WILL ARRIVE TO WACO SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE
METROPLEX JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW...WE WILL SEE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BR OR PERHAPS DRIZZLE. AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES JUST AROUND OR
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WILL KEEP THE VCSH PREVAILING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LOW...BUT WILL
INTRODUCE A CB GROUP DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS DRIER AIR AND W/SW WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION AROUND NOON TOMORROW.

85/NH

&&

.UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK...BUT WILL RAISE WINDS TO 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO/OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...AS STRONG SLY GRADIENT COMBINES
WITH MIXING 30-50 KTS BOUNDARY LYR-850 MB FLOW. NOT EXPECTING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME ALONG AND W OF I-35...BUT IT WILL
BE WINDY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WARMED TEMPS UP OVER WRN HALF OF N
TX PER THERMAL AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG AND WEST
OF A JACKSBORO...STEPHENVILLE...LAMPASAS LINE FOR LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. STEPHENS AND EASTLAND COUNTIES DO HAVE BURN
BANS IN PLACE CURRENTLY. THIS SAME AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER
ELEVATED TO HIGH GRASS FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
DRYLINE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD I-35 BY MIDDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND W/SW WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2010/
QUIET CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TODAY...USHERING IN
850MB TEMPS FROM 13 TO 15 DEGREES C OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
EXPECT AFTERNOON READINGS TODAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TARGET FOR
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER 06Z...AND EXIT OUR EASTERN CWA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS IMPRESSIVE
/APPROACHING 100 KTS/ BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND INSTABILITY
IS MEAGER AT BEST. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER ON
SATURDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL EASE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH READINGS IN THE
50S BY TUESDAY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH THE STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR NEXT
THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
GFS SOLUTION...DEPICTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. AS A
RESULT...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE GFS FOR THE EXTENDED. WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCHULTZ

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG AND WEST
OF A JACKSBORO...STEPHENVILLE...LAMPASAS LINE FOR LOW HUMIDITIES
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. STEPHENS AND EASTLAND COUNTIES DO HAVE BURN
BANS IN PLACE CURRENTLY. THIS SAME AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER
ELEVATED TO HIGH GRASS FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS A
DRYLINE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD I-35 BY MIDDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITIES
AND W/SW WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  56  70  45  61 /   5  20  40  10  10
WACO, TX              75  57  71  46  65 /   5  10  20  10   5
PARIS, TX             67  51  64  44  57 /   5  20  50  10  10
DENTON, TX            71  53  69  41  63 /   5  20  40  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          69  55  69  42  62 /   5  20  50  10  10
DALLAS, TX            71  55  70  48  62 /   5  20  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           72  55  67  46  62 /   5  20  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  56  71  47  64 /   5  20  40  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            74  58  71  46  65 /   5  10  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

85/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-231030-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
430 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A
JACKSBORO TO LAMPASAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL PRESENT THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH