Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR DFW AIRPORT THROUGH 4 PM CDT.
LIGHTNING...POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

TAF CONCERNS...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS NOW ON THE DOORSTEP OF METRO TAF SITES. INITIAL FM
GROUP WILL CARRY VCTS WITH TEMPO FOR TSRA BEGINNING AT 18Z. CELLS
WILL CONTINUE TRAINING SW-NE WHILE THE STREAM OF CONVECTION
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. BACK EDGE OF HEAVIEST STORMS SHOULD PASS EAST
OF METRO TAF SITES AROUND 22Z (5 PM CDT). POSTPONED ARRIVAL AT
WACO.

STRATIFORM RAIN REGION WILL IMPACT AREAS AFTER SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LLJ NEAR 35KTS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT...PAST SUNRISE...SCATTERING MID TO LATE MORNING. ANY
CONVECTION SUNDAY SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF TAF SITES.

25

&&

.UPDATE...

CONCERNING AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...

NEARLY SOLID LINE OF LARGELY UNORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVER NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS MORNING. AT 16Z THIS LINE
EXTENDED FROM BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO CISCO. THIS LINE OF STORMS
WAS PRIMARILY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1
INCH PER HOUR. OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE A NEW LINE OF CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING FROM GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO STEPHENVILLE. AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EAST THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS MORE UNSTABLE WITH LOCALLY CALCULATED ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS INDICATING NEARLY 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE OUT
AHEAD OF THIS NEW LINE OF STORMS. DEEP LAYER /0-6 KM/ SHEAR
REMAINS HIGH WITH VALUES NEAR 50 KTS OVER MUCH OF NORTH TX.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTHWESTERN TX. THE CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEW LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE METROPLEX IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH A 10 TO
15 DEG F TEMPERATURE DROP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES OVER NORTH TX THINK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. HAVE UPPED
POPS INTO THE 60 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION TODAY.

IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THINK THAT AREAS MOST LIKELY
TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ARE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A
SHERMAN TO DFW TO LAMPASAS LINE. CLOUDY SKIES HAVE LIMITED
DESTABILIZATION SOMEWHAT TODAY...HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS AIDED IN THE DEEPENING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SO DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES...LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EXISTS OUT AHEAD OF ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY. THE ONLY
LOCATION WHERE WE HAVE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IS SOUTH OF
THE METROPLEX AND JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. WOULD EXPECT THAT
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THIS MAY BE A FAVORED AREA FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

DUE TO LITTLE ENVIRONMENTAL INHIBITION IN PLACE AND STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FORECAST TO BUILD OVER NORTH TX BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON THINK THAT STORM MODE WILL TEND TO REMAIN QUASI-
LINEAR IN NATURE. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
PLACE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THINK THAT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A TORNADO THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
REMAIN DISCRETE THIS AFTERNOON AND A WELL ORGANIZED QLCS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. WILL HAVE IMAGES UP SHORTLY TO
SUPPORT SHORT TERM FORECAST THOUGHTS.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010/
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE
QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY...WITH
CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE POPS WILL BE HIGHEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED/CELLULAR OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHER
VALUES OF CIN SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
BULK SHEAR IS HIGH AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POTENTIAL IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NW
HALF OF THE CWA MAY BECOME MITIGATED BY THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...HIGHER INSTABILITY FROM LESS
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AS WELL AS CELLULAR STORM MODES MAY ALLOW
FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
TRAINING BANDS OF CONVECTION EXISTS PRIMARILY ALONG AN AXIS FROM
EASTLAND TO GAINESVILLE WHERE MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING
MEAN QPF OF 1-2 INCHES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...
CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE BACK EDGE
REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET.

A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ONCE AGAIN EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HIGHER AS CAPE INCREASES TO
1500-2500 J/KG. THIS IS DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW
AND MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALSO SOME
AMOUNT OF MIDDAY/AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. IN ADDITION...THE DRY LINE
WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM SHERMAN
TO FORT WORTH TO GOLDTHWAITE. STORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH
AS TODAY...BUT WHAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE SHOULD BECOME
SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
VEERING/WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD HELP LESSEN THIS THREAT.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MONDAY WILL FEATURE WESTERLY
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND DEPLETE THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION. IT WILL ALSO BE
WINDY AS A POWERFUL CYCLONE WRAPS UP ACROSS THE PLAINS AND S/SW
WINDS RAMP UP TO 20-25MPH. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES. SHEAR PROFILES ARE
EXTRAORDINARY MONDAY EVENING...SO IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
REINFORCING PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TOO ZONAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FRONT...SOME
ELEVATED MOISTURE/FRONTOGENESIS LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND WILL SHOW 20 POPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
AND PLEASANT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  65  84  63  88 /  90  60  20  20   5
WACO, TX              79  67  86  64  88 /  80  50  30  30   5
PARIS, TX             79  64  83  62  83 /  80  60  40  40  10
DENTON, TX            78  64  84  59  87 /  90  50  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          79  65  84  60  86 /  90  60  30  30  10
DALLAS, TX            78  66  84  62  87 /  90  60  30  20  10
TERRELL, TX           79  67  84  64  86 /  80  60  40  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         80  67  84  65  85 /  70  60  40  40   5
TEMPLE, TX            79  67  85  63  88 /  70  50  30  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  60  85  54  90 /  90  20  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/69

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
419 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-232100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
419 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS TODAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL AREAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING IN AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO
LAMPASAS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN AREAS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 BY LATE THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH
TEXAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
219 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

TXZ104-105-120-121-231945-
HUNT TX-COLLIN TX-ROCKWALL TX-KAUFMAN TX-
219 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN COLLIN COUNTY
  WESTERN HUNT COUNTY
  NORTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTY
  ROCKWALL COUNTY

AT 219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WYLIE TO 4 MILES NORTH OF SEAGOVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CADDO MILLS...FATE...
FORNEY...GREENVILLE...HEATH...QUINLAN...ROCKWALL...ROYSE CITY AND
TERRELL.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3329 9608 3268 9608 3266 9652 3290 9652
      3306 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 238DEG 22KT 3302 9640 3274 9651

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
239 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

TXZ118-119-133-134-232015-
TARRANT TX-DALLAS TX-JOHNSON TX-ELLIS TX-
239 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MANSFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ARLINGTON...CEDAR HILL...
COCKRELL HILL...DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS...DESOTO...DUNCANVILLE...
EVERMAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...GRAND PRAIRIE...KENNEDALE...LANCASTER...
MANSFIELD...MIDLOTHIAN...OAK LEAF...OVILLA...PANTEGO...RED OAK...
RENDON...VENUS AND CEDAR HILL STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3287 9690 3250 9670 3241 9703 3238 9716
      3264 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 226DEG 25KT 3257 9712

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE NORTH RICHLAND HILLS 32.80N  97.24W
10/23/2010                   TARRANT            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A RESIDENCE ROOF WAS PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF NEAR BOWSPIRIT
            LANE. TIME ESTIMATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE NORTH RICHLAND HILLS 32.80N  97.24W
10/23/2010                   TARRANT            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A RESIDENCE ROOF WAS PARTIALLY BLOWN OFF NEAR BOWSPIRIT
            LANE. TIME ESTIMATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

TXZ159-232015-
MCLENNAN TX-
246 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MCLENNAN COUNTY

AT 247 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOODWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BELLMEAD...BEVERLY HILLS...
HALLSBURG...HEWITT...LACY-LAKEVIEW...MART...NORTHCREST...ROBINSON...
WACO...WEST AND WOODWAY.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3158 9743 3185 9705 3154 9681 3137 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 231DEG 26KT 3148 9727