Severe Thunderstorm Warning 266, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
345 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET DRIVING MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS
BROOKINGS...LINCOLN...AND MARSHALL COUNTIES NEAR HIGHWAY 14 THIS
MORNING...AS STORMS TRAINED OVER THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING...IF NOT
EARLIER...AS STRONGEST UPPER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET MOVE INTO
EASTERN MN AND IA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. MAINLY
LOOKING AT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS
THIS MORNING...BUT THAT ACTIVITY WILL SHUT OFF AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN
AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE BY LATER THIS
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD POCKET OF AIR SLIDES OVER THE AREA. 700
MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 0 DEG C AND 500 MB TEMPS MINUS 15 TO
MINU 20 DEG C. MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE LACKING SOUTH OF I90...SO
NOT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FARTHER NORTH...DYNAMICS
SHOULD BE A BIT STRONG AND CERTAINLY COOLER WITH MORE MOISTURE...
SUCH THAT COULD SEE A RUMBELS OF THUNDER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND 40+ KTS
ALOFT COULD MIX TO THE SFC...PRODUCING GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH. ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKE
USUAL...SHOULD BE A MARGINAL EVENT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30
MPH AND A FEW GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RAPIDLY STABILZE THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN END
TO ANY SHOWER OR THUNDESTORMS. MAY SEE A LINGERING SHOWER IN SW MN
THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING THINGS ON
THE DRY SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /97

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS THE OBVIOUS CONCERN...MAINLY
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR AND EWD. TWO AREAS OF CONCENTRATED
STORM ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NRN PORTIONS OF SW MN...AND ALSO TO
THE SOUTH OF I 90. SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST BUT WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR SW MN AND NW IA THRU AROUND 12Z. IN ANY OF THIS TSRA ACTIVITY...
SHORT TERM IFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION...EVEN AFTER
THE RAINFALL ENDS...MVFR STRATUS MAY LINGER UNTIL SHORTLY AFT
SUNRISE IN AREAS FM I 29 AND EWD. FM ABOUT 15Z ONWARD...CONDS SHOULD
BE VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FSD FA. BUT W TO NW WINDS GUSTING TO OVER
25 MPH IS PROBABLE FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS WL
SUBSIDE SOME THIS EVENING WITH VFR STILL PREVAILING.    /MJF

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

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