River Flood Warning 99, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG MCV EXITING ERN CWA THIS MORNING...BUT EFFECTS OF MASSIVE MCC
ONGOING WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING BACK ALG AXIS OF VEERING LLJ OF
50-55 KTS. LARGELY A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SEVERAL
INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS ALG PATH...WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT ACRS
NW IA EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT IN AREAS FROM MAURICE TO CHEROKEE.
BOUNDARIES GALORE IN SFC ANLYS...FM INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE
THRU WRN SD...TO CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WMFNT ACRS CNTRL NEBRASKA
TO SWRN IA. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LTR TDA...AS WELL AS THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT ON FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR THE
DAY.

WL SEE SLOW ENDING FROM W TO E OF CURRENT MCS...AS LLJ CONTINUES TO
VEER AND THEN WKN THIS MORNING...WITH END OF PCPN IN GRIDS TIED TO
PASSAGE OF WK WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING. WORKED OVER AIRMASS SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF DAY TO BE QUIET...LATE MORNING TO AT LEAST MID TO LATE
AFTN. IN WAKE OF SYSTEM...WMFNT ACRS NEBRASKA SHUD ATTEMPT A MODEST
NWRD PUSH TOWARD FAR SRN CWA. VERY WARM ALFT...AND SHUD BE CAPPED
AT LEAST UNTIL VERY LATE IN DAY BASED ON MORE REALISTIC GFS PROFILES.
CANNOT UNDERSTAND NAM DRIVING BNDRY SO FAR SWRD DURG THE AFTN.
FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY WK OVERALL...WITH
MAIN WAVE TO N ONLY OFFERING A GLANCING PV LOBE...AND WITH WAVE TO
N...LLJ LOOKS TO LACK THE BACKING NEEDED TO REALLY ENHANCE PCPN
THREAT GREATLY. DESPITE SOME BURLY THERMODYMAMICS...TONIGHT MAY END
UP A CONVECTIVE MISFIRE FOR MOST. DEVELOPMENT MAY END UP BEING MORE
OF A FLARE UP DURING THE EVNG HOURS NEAR THE WK CONVERGENCE
AXIS/WMFNT...PERHAPS HAVING TO WATCH FOR STORMS WANDERING FROM MORE
WRN ORIGINS THRU WRN CWA...AND NR BNDRY LATER INTO NIGHT ACRS THE
SE.  KEPT THINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE CHC POP RANGE. HOWEVER...IF
STORMS TO DEVELOP...SOME SVR WX WOULD BE ALMOST A GIVEN WITH
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR AS S EDGE OF WLYS WORK DOWN AS WAVE
PASSES BY TO N.

AIRMASS TODAY MASSIVELY RECYCLED BY MCS...SO FOR THE TIME...DWPTS
HAVE BEEN KNOCKED BACK SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STABILITY DUE TO ELEVATED
WMFNT WELL NORTH OF SFC BNDRY...AND THUS AT LEAST WK CAPPING
INVERSION SHUD ALLOW A TREMENDOUS UPSURGE IN DWPTS DURING THE
MORNING...LEADING TO OPPRESSIVELY HUMID DAY. AS TMPS RECOVER UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTN...WL SEE HEAT INDEX GETTING TO THE
100-105 RANGE THRU FAR SOUTH.

MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...AS WL SEE WINDS BACK AHEAD OF STRONG
WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. BNDRY WL PRETTY MUCH WAFFLE FIRST
S THEN N IN CWA. INSTABILITY IMPRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE POOLING INTO
BNDRY...WELL CAPPED THRU EARLY AFTN. SHEAR FRIGHTENING AS MID LVL
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SHEAR ESPLY NEAR BNDRY ALLOWS 0-1KM SHEAR AND
0-6KM SHEAR TO MOVE STRONGLY TOWARD SIGNIFICANT SVR THRESHOLDS.
INITIAL LIFT FORCING STARTS BY EARLY AFTN THRU CNTRL SD...BUT
SHUD GET STRONG PUSH FOR DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE AFTN ALG WSW TO ENE
BNDRY...WHICH WL WORK SWRD THRU THE EVNG. BEST PV SUPPORT JUST
NORTH...BUT NO REASON NOT TO EXPECT SWRD DEVELOPMENT INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS ONCE GETS GOING...LKLY INITIAL SCT SUPERCELLS...
THEN HYBRID OF MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS ALG LINEARLY FORCED ZONE
THRU THE EVNG.

NOT MUCH TIME TO WORK WITH SAT AND BEYOND WITH WEATHER CONCERNS.
LOOKS TO BE WELCOMED QUIET TIME WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN THRU SUN
AM...THEN SLIDING EWRD WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING INTO MONDAY.

/CHAPMAN

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
656 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-231200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
656 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY EXIT
AREAS FROM AROUND INTERSTATE 29 AND EASTWARD THROUGH MID MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND THEN A BIT LATER INTO THE NIGHT
THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MORE POTENT SEVERE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS TO EXIST FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD ERUPT RAPIDLY IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND
EXPAND ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING NEAR INTERSTATE 90.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH AND HAIL TO HEN EGG SIZE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DROP OFF
SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET AS STORMS SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA...WITH
A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND HAIL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 6 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
757 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S ROCK RAPIDS         43.40N 96.17W
07/22/2010  M7.25 INCH       LYON               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
805 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S DAVIS               43.24N 97.00W
07/22/2010  M2.00 INCH       TURNER             SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

TRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
825 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

SDZ062-221530-
MINNEHAHA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SIOUX FALLS
825 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

...BIG SIOUX RIVER OUT OF ITS BANKS IN PORTIONS OF SIOUX FALLS...

DUE TO 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL LAST NIGHT IN THE SIOUX FALLS
AREA...PORTIONS OF THE BIG SIOUX RIVER HAVE FLOODED SOME OF THE
PARKS AND THE BIKE TRAIL IN SIOUX FALLS. AT 8 AM CDT...PORTIONS OF
SPENCER PARK NEAR CLIFF AVENUE AND INTERSTATE 229 WERE UNDERWATER.
WHILE THE RIVER FLOODING IS NOT WIDESPREAD...THERE MAY BE A FEW
OTHER PARKS OR PORTIONS OF THE BIKE TRAIL THAT ARE ALSO FLOODED.

RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CITY.  THE RIVER HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND
IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY FALL. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN
ITS BANKS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE CITY OF SIOUX FALLS.

SCHUMACHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
829 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSE SIOUX FALLS       43.46N 96.68W
07/22/2010  M3.84 INCH       LINCOLN            SD   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

TRM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1001 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE PARK               43.45N 95.32W
07/22/2010  E3.75 INCH       DICKINSON          IA   PUBLIC

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N MELVIN              43.36N 95.61W
07/22/2010  M6.63 INCH       OSCEOLA            IA   PUBLIC

&&

PS