River Flood Warning 56, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
700 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF I-29 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD EXIT EASTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA BY 15Z. CANCELLED REMAINDER OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...AS WELL AS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST OF A YANKTON TO
SIOUX FALLS LINE TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SERN
PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZFP HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO PRODUCING REPORTS OF 65-75 MPH WINDS SHOULD BE
EXITING EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BROAD AREA
OF MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER EXTENDING OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS OF 09Z...WITH BACK EDGE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO EXIT TO THE
EAST BY MID-LATE MORNING...AND TOUGH TO TELL WHERE LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT BEST CONSENSUS FROM
MODELS PLACE THE MAIN BOUNDARY NEAR A KYKN-KFSD-KMML LINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING. ABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO REFIRE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND
TO SOME DEGREE ON EXTENT OF CLEARING/HEATING OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE JUICY WITH LOWER
70S DEW POINTS LIKELY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
PUSHED BACK TIMING OF REDEVELOPMENT TO LATE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A
LITTLE MORE TIME FOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...WITH GREATER CHANCE
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. HAVE CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES A
FEW HOURS EARLY AS RAIN BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 12Z.
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NWRN IA/SWRN MN TO COVER
POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL
AGAIN BRING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AS WEAK WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH THRU
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND DRY MOST AREAS. MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
WILL STICK WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR-LOCALLY IFR CIGS WITH BROAD AREA OF RAIN/TSRA EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE AS UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
PUSHES RAIN EAST OF THE AREA BY 15Z. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA
ALONG/EAST OF A KYKN-KFSD-KMML LINE DEVELOPING MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG LINGERING LOW LEVEL FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. PERIODS OF MVFR-LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...WITH
GREATEST CHANCE SOUTH OF I-90.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR MNZ089-090-098.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR NEZ013-014.

SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR SDZ062-066-067-069>071.

&&

 JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
551 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-121200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
551 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM YANKTON...TO SIOUX FALLS AND MARSHALL MINNESOTA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FLOODING...
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
AGAIN PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE. WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...AND EAST OF A LINE FROM YANKTON TO SIOUX
FALLS...WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FURTHER FLASH FLOODING SHOULD
HEAVY RAINS OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM...ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM YANKTON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
800 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WHITE LAKE              43.73N 98.71W
06/11/2010                   AURORA             SD   PUBLIC

            ROOF AND GARAGE OFF HOUSE...TREES BLOWN OVER AND CAR
            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
819 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PIERSON                 42.54N 95.87W
06/11/2010                   WOODBURY           IA   PUBLIC

            BUILDING DOWNTOWN HAS ROOF BLOWN OFF

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
833 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HUDSON                  43.13N 96.46W
06/11/2010                   LINCOLN            SD   PUBLIC

            ROOF OFF SHED AND TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT CATTLE
            RANCH

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
920 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E ORLAND              43.89N 97.10W
06/11/2010                   LAKE               SD   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN.

0240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE HUBBARD            42.41N 96.56W
06/11/2010                   DAKOTA             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DEBRIS ON ROADWAY RESULTING IN CLOSING OF HIGHWAY 35
            NORTHEAST OF HUBBARD.

0249 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE SIOUX CITY        42.43N 96.37W
06/11/2010                   WOODBURY           IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TRACTOR TRAILER TIPPED ONTO AN AMMONIA TRUCK AT TRUCK
            STOP.

&&

JCHAPMAN

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