River Flood Warning 135, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
435 AM CDT SAT AUG 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...
TWO BIG ISSUES IN THIS FCST ARE CAP/RIDGE RIDING CHCS TSTMS AND
BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY NEXT FEW DAYS. AS SUSPECTED YESTERDAY...
TSTMS FIRED ON EDGE OF CAP AND NOSE OF DVLPG SLY LLJ FM SWRN MN TO
NWRN IA EARLY THIS MRNG. THIS SCT ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EWD OUT OF
CWA BY MID MRNG...LEAVING US WITH CAPPED AND WARMING ENVIRONMENT
TDA. HUMIDITY STILL SHOULD NOT BE TOO BAD YET TDA AS DEEPER
MOISTURE STILL WELL SOUTH...BUT THE SUN WILL BE WORKING ON
CONTINUED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM WET GROUND AND VEGETATION TDA...
POOLING THE DEWPOINTS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHOULD BE IN FULL
FORCE WITH ADDED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED SSELY FLOW SUN
INTO MON...AND EXPANDED HEAT WATCH N AND W A FEW COUNTIES FOR SUN
AFTN THRU MON. NEXT ISSUE IS THE CHCS OF TSTMS DEPENDING ON BREAKING
OF CAP. TONED BACK CHCS OF TSTMS SOME THIS AFTN THRU TNGT AS NEXT
MCS WILL LIKELY SKIRT OUR CWA TO THE NE THRU TNGT...BUT KEPT SOME
POPS IN JUST IN CASE MCS DOES A RIGHT TURN INTO THE CAP ESP IN SWRN
MN. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE DAY...ESP SOUTH OF I90.
SIGNS OF CAP BREAKING IN THE LATE AFTN AS FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SAGS SWD AND PROVIDES SOME CONVERGENCE. ALL MODELS SHOW SOME KIND
OF TROPICAL CONNECTION RIDGE RIDER DVLPG ENEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SUN NGT...AND PREV STRONG POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD ESP FOR SERN HLF
CWA. IF TSTMS DVLP THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LCLLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...
BUT A FEW SVR STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP SHEAR. PSBL MCS PULLS OFF TO EAST OF CWA ON MON...
BUT MORE TROPICAL ENERGY/MOISTURE MOVES ENEWD OVER AREA EARLY AND
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. DID PUT A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT BEHIND FNT FOR
WED BASED ON ALL THE MODELS...BUT OTRW PREV FCST IN THE BALLPARK./
RYRHOLM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 06Z SUN FOR TAF LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SCT TSRA
THRU VERY EARLY MORNING ACRS SW MN AND NW IA WL YIELD LCL IFR VSBYS
AND MVFR CIGS. THE ONLY THREAT OF SCT TSRA TONIGHT WL BE NE OF A
KBKX TO KSPW LINE. DEVELOPING LLJ TONIGHT WL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR
LLWS FOR KSUX./ CHAPMAN

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032.

MN...NONE.
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ013-014.

SD...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR SDZ068>071.

&&

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