Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

541 
WGUS73 KFSD 300648
FFSFSD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
148 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

SDC083-087-099-125-300800-
/O.CON.KFSD.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-100730T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MINNEHAHA SD-MCCOOK SD-LINCOLN SD-TURNER SD-
148 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN TURNER...
NORTHERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN MCCOOK AND SOUTHERN MINNEHAHA
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 145 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 1 TO 
2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE WARNED AREA...WITH 
ANOTHER 1 TO INCHES LIKELY BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
INCLUDE...PARKER...SIOUX FALLS...BRANDON...CANISTOTA...CROOKS...
DOLTON...HARRISBURG...HARTFORD...HUMBOLDT...MARION...MONROE...
ROWENA...TEA AND WALL LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9648 4350 9660 4348 9658 4344 9659
      4338 9652 4338 9739 4366 9741 4367 9647

$$

CJ

029 
WGUS73 KFSD 300753
FFSFSD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
253 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

SDC083-087-099-125-300806-
/O.EXP.KFSD.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-100730T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MINNEHAHA SD-MCCOOK SD-LINCOLN SD-TURNER SD-
253 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN TURNER...
NORTHERN LINCOLN...SOUTHEASTERN MCCOOK AND SOUTHERN MINNEHAHA
COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 300 AM CDT...

THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNED AREA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. 
PERSONS LIVING NEAR RIVER AND STREAMS MAY STILL EXPERIENCE 
FLOODING...HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

LAT...LON 4350 9648 4350 9660 4348 9658 4344 9659
      4338 9652 4338 9739 4366 9741 4367 9647

$$

CJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
935 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

.DISCUSSION...
HI TO VERY HI POPS FOR TSTMS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
CURRENT STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN SW OF HON HAVE SHOWED SOME
DECENT SHEAR BESIDES THE HEAVY RAIN BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE SEVERE.
THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SEVERE THREAT
MINIMAL BUT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE WATCHED. AS
NIGHT GOES ON COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH OVER MOST OF FORECAST
AREA...TENDING TO THE E LATER ON. CURRENT COMPLEX SEEMS TO BE
DRAWING A BEAD ACROSS ECNTRL SD NEAR OR JUST N OF FSD INTO SWRN MN
AND PSBLY FAR NRN IA. AT LEAST THE AREA NEAR THE MO RVR THAT WAS HIT
EARLIER TDA WITH HEAVY RAIN MAY ESCAPE THE WORST FROM HERE OUT
BETWEEN CURRENT AREAS TO THE N AND IN NE. TEMPS AND WINDS NOT A BIG
PROBLEM. ACTVTY SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE W AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MAY
LINGER TO DAYBREAK EASTERN EDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND/SOUTH OF KHON AT 02Z WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY FALL TO MVFR AT TIMES...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVIER RAIN. SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE STORMS EXIT...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT INTO
MVFR RANGE BY MIDDAY...THEN SCATTER OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.   /JH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING A BIT AS THE MORNING AND NOW
AFTERNOON MCS STILL ONGOING. THIS IS REALLY LEFT SOME COOL AIR
BEHIND AND SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK PRETTY UNLIKELY. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE NEAR 9V9 IF A LITTLE MORE RECOVERY CAN TAKE
PLACE THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE DAY. THERE IS SOME BETTER
RECOVERY TAKING PLACE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...SO MAYBE LOOKING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN AND SW PARTS OF SD. AFTER
ABOUT 2Z OR 3Z...LLJ BEGINS TO INCREASE AND FOCUS IN CENTRAL SD.
THIS SHOULD AID IN IGNITING SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD
LIKELY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. CAPE PROFILE IS PRETTY
SKINNY AND AROUND 1250 J/KG AND WITH ONLY ABOUT 35 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE 1 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO 1.50 INCHES TO 2
INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN THREATEN. THE 850-750MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS REALLY STRENGTHEN AND FOCUS ON SE SD AND SW MN
FROM ABOUT 6Z TO 12Z WHICH SHOULD BE THE BEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. /08

SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST OF I-29 FRI MORNING BUT THAT IS
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT. COULD SEE
LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO NW IA INTO FRI AFTERNOON BUT MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY DURING THIS TIME. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL SD LATE FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
THIS WOULD BE PREDICATED ENOUGH CLEARING THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION
CAN FORM. LEFT POPS OUT FRI EVENING THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF
A STABLE LAYER TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...MODELS ARE
TRENDING TO JUICER LOW LEVELS...AND THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA.
DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE EAST ASSUMING
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY.

AFTER FRI EVENING...INDICATIONS ARE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
WARM SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 80S
EAST AND 90S WEST BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA SUN
NIGHT. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
SUN NIGHT. MAY AGAIN BE LOOKING AT AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BUT TO
FAR OUT TO SPECULATE WHERE OR IF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL. AT THIS
TIME THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SUN NIGHT APPEARS MINIMAL. ACTIVE
WX PATTERN REMAINS RELENTLESS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY OR TWO. /97

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

WILLIAMS/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1110 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-301200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1110 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY HEAVIER RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 29...WITH A
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE. AS THIS
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSING A
HIGHER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER. HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF HALF DOLLARS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS AND
THEY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST MAINLY AFTER ABOUT 1000 PM
CDT AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING
ALONG THE VERMILLION...BIG SIOUX AND LITTLE SIOUX. FLOODING
CONTINUES ALONG THE JAMES RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
IOWA.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. IF STORMS
DO DEVELOP...A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 600 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HEAVY RAIN       18 S WESSINGTON         44.19N 98.70W
07/29/2010  M6.00 INCH       JERAULD            SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WILLIAMS