High Wind Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

968 
WWUS75 KFGZ 220635
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1135 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

AZZ008-018-037-038-220745-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100122T0700Z/
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRESCOTT...SELIGMAN...ASH FORK...
PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG...COTTONWOOD...CAMP VERDE...
CORDES JUNCTION...BAGDAD...SEDONA
1135 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE...THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE ENDED AND THEREFORE THE HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.


$$

AG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
412 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A MASSIVE STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE AROUND 7000 FEET THIS EVENING...AND THEN PLUMMET
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STORMY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. PLEASE VISIT US ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR DETAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BELOW 7000 FEET.
RAIN/SNOW FALL INTENSITIES WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING S/WV AND COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE
VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. IN ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWERING
TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. THE FRONT WILL ALSO ENABLE STRONG WINDS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE FOR A FEW HOURS CAUSING LOCALIZED BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...AND MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.

BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...LONG-LIVED DEEP INSTABILITY AND DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW AND A S/WV OR TWO.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER INCH OF LIQUID FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND RAIN.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLOWLY SATURDAY...WITH A S/WV RIDGE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODELS DO BRING ANOTHER
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT STORM INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START AROUND 7500 FEET AND THEN PLUMMET TO AROUND 4500
FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH 30-45 KT GUSTS. DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

1) FLOOD WATCH...SEE PHXFFAFGZ FOR DETAILS.

2) WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS...SEE PHXWSWFGZ FOR DETAILS.

3) FLOOD WARNING...SEE PHXFLWFGZ FOR DETAILS.
&&

PUBLIC..........CLARK
AVIATION........MCCOLLUM

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1141 AM MST THU JAN 21 2010

AZZ004>018-037>040-220800-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1141 AM MST THU JAN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TONIGHT

THE FIRST PART OF A HUGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. AREAS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
WILL BE THE HARDEST HIT.

SNOW LEVELS HAVE STARTED TO RISE AND WILL CONTINUE RISING THROUGH
THE DAY...PEAKING AROUND 7000 FEET ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO AROUND 4500
FEET AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL BELOW 6500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES.

THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SNOW MELT FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
RESIDENTS LIVING NEAR THE VERDE RIVER...AGUA FRIA RIVER...SANTA
MARIA RIVER...OAK CREEK...TONTO CREEK....CIBECUE CREEK AND ANY
OTHER DRAINAGES SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM SHOULD MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER
GROUND.

IN THE MOUNTAINS...HUGE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL TODAY DESPITE
RISING SNOW LEVELS. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL TOP OUT AROUND 7000 FEET
AND NO CHANGE TO A WINTERY MIX/RAIN IS EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET WILL STILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 INCHES
DURING THE DAY TODAY DESPITE THE CHANGE TO A WINTERY MIX. AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT HEAVY SNOW WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 2-4 FEET OF SNOW ABOVE 6500 FEET AND
3-5 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET.

TO COMPLICATE THIS WEATHER SITUATION WILL BE A PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH
HEAVY SNOW LOADING ON TREES AND UTILITY POLES ALONG WITH THE HIGH
WINDS...POWER OUTAGES COULD BECOME A PROBLEM. THE COMBINATION OF
THE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS
AND VERY RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAKING TRAVEL CONDITIONS
EXTRAORDINARILY HAZARDOUS.

A VARIETY OF SNOW WINTER STORM WARNINGS...AND FLOOD WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE REFER TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RIM. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BELOW 5000 FEET
SOUTH OF THE RIM. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES BELOW 6000 FEET...WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SHOWERY BY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANOTHER STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.