Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST FRI JUL 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN EXTREMELY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GETTING TO THE POINT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN
TIME. IT NOW RUNS FROM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS EVENING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
CONTINUING ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THESE STORMS ARE LINKED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN IN
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER SOUTHEAST AZ EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE ISSUED SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES TODAY. PROGS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS
THIS WEEKEND SO THE SCREAMING MESSAGE IS TO STAY OUT OF CANYONS.

PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM. THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON IN A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE CONTAINING AROUND 1.2 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO MOVE TOWARD LOW
ELEVATIONS...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...LITTLE
CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE OF SOUNDING SO ANOTHER DAY OF HEAVY
RAIN LIKELY. FIRST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND LOOKS TO BE
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. ALONG WITH MOIST
CONDITIONS...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO RAIN-COOLED ATMOSPHERE AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.

DJO

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WITH AREAS MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR VIS/CIGS PSBL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY....WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND AREAS MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR VIS/CIGS PSBL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
ALL NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST ZONES UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING.

PUBLIC.......DL
AVIATION.....DL

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

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