Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
850 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT REMAINS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WHICH CLIPPED LAKE
OF THE WOODS...CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS
FAR TO THE SOUTH. 00Z KBIS AND KABR SOUNDINGS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR -8C AND SPC MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF AROUND 2500 J/KG FOR BOTH AREAS. HOWEVER...THE INSTABILITY
DECREASES RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS YOU MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.

CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS HAVE CHANCE THUNDERSTORM PERCENTAGES IN THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE.
DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...CELL MOVEMENT HAS BEEN VERY
SLOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE BIS FA...IN
LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...WHERE PERSISTENT SLOW MOVING CELLS
HAVE REMAINED FOR THE LAST 2 HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOP IN THE FA OVERNIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. THUS...NO EVENING
UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OVERNIGHT APPEAR TO BE BEST IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. THUS...KDVL AND KFAR MAY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS DEVELOPING DURING MONDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

BRAMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
505 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-211200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
505 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND TO ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.