Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
430 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WY ROTATES TO A NEGATIVE TILT AS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH ND TODAY.

GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST SD EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
HAVE EXPANDED INTO EASTERN ND. MID LEVEL CAP EXTENDED FROM WEST KS
INTO CENTRAL SD...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED ON EDGE OF CAP.
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING.

HIGH THETA-E AXIS ORIENTATED NW-SE WILL SWEEP FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST TO RISE
TO NEAR 1 3/4 INCHES TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. GFS CROSS SECTION INDICATES IMPRESSIVE MID
LEVEL DRYING AT 00Z FRI. NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY SLOTS THE AREA. EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN 40 TO 45
KNOTS. MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WARNING. OBVIOUSLY
STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS
EVENING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN
ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRI. POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 45
KNOTS TO MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY FRI.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL KEEP
LOW POPS THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...LOWER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

HOPPES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-023-027>031-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-
WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-
GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-
EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-
SARGENT-RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
653 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY RIGHT OF
A LINE FROM NEAR HAVANA NORTH DAKOTA TO VALLEY CITY TO NEAR RED
LAKE FALLS MINNESOTA TO LAPORT MINNESOTA. SURROUNDING THE MODERATE
RISK...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

EXPECT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER MAY OCCUR ANYTIME TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2 PM CDT AND 10 PM CDT.
ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN A BE EXPECTED.

ALSO STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. SOUTH
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE WAVES FROM
2 TO 6 FEET ON ON DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR ROADS NEAR THE LAKE...EXPECT WATER AND DEBRIS TO WASH
ONTO ROADWAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRODUCE THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGEST FROM 8 AM CDT TO 9 PM CDT. WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE
WAVES FROM 2 TO 6 FEET ON ON DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR ROADS NEAR THE LAKE...EXPECT WATER AND
DEBRIS TO WASH ONTO ROADWAYS.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL PRODUCE THE GUSTY
WINDS FOR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MNZ006-009-016-017-024-032-181200-
LAKE OF THE WOODS-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
HUBBARD-WADENA-
653 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY RIGHT OF
A LINE FROM NEAR HAVANA NORTH DAKOTA TO VALLEY CITY TO NEAR RED
LAKE FALLS MINNESOTA TO LAPORT MINNESOTA. SURROUNDING THE MODERATE
RISK...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

EXPECT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER MAY OCCUR ANYTIME TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2 PM CDT AND 10 PM CDT. ALSO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN A BE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND PRODUCE THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES