Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
220 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

.SHORT TERM...
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS
EVENING THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES THRU THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT...CLEARING LINE TAKING FOREVER TO MOVE INTO EASTERN ND BUT
HAS NOW REACHED THE KDVL TO KJMS CORRIDOR. WIND SHIFT LINE/DRY
LINE CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTER OF ND WHERE SOME TSTMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED. SFC DEW POINTS AT KBIS/KMOT AT 48F WHERE KDVL/KJMS ARE
IN THE UPPER 50S. NICE SURGE OF DRY AIR COMING INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF ND ON BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. HAVE ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SFC BASED CAPE IN THE ZONE WHERE THE TSTMS ARE FIRING. SPC MESO
CHARTS SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE
OF STORMS WITH COOLER 500MB TEMPS ALSO MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ND. SOME LIMITING PARAMETERS MAY BE THAT THE STORMS ARE MOVING
INTO A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY ALL DAY.
KGFK/KFAR HAVE ONLY REACHED THE LOWER 60S TODAY WITH FOG/LOW
CLOUDS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY ABOUT 30...SO NOT THE
STRONGEST THERE. SPC HAS ISSUED A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION TALKING
ABOUT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THRU
THE LATE AFTERNOON. NICE SPINNING UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE MANITOBA LAKES REGION. AS THIS WAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT SOME SPOKES OF VORTICITY MAY ROTATE DOWN INTO
AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WILL THEREFORE KEEP SOME CHANCES
FOR RAIN ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT.

WED-FRI...WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AROUND THE NORTHEAST FA
ON WED MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COOL AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE
VALLEY THRU THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS COOL TO 6-8C. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE THU/THU NIGHT. 12Z MODELS SHOW BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ON THU ITSELF SO HAVE UPPED PCPN CHANCES JUST A BIT. FORECAST
ALREADY HAD LIKELY PCPN CHANCES FOR THU NIGHT AND WILL LEAVE THOSE
INTACT. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE MAIN BATCH OF PCPN MOVING TOWARD
THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE OTHERS ARE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...SO THE
JURY IS STILL OUT. LOTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THE THU/THU
NIGHT SYSTEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUMP UP TO OVER 1.50
INCHES. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE BEST PCPN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MN ON FRI SO NO CHANGES THERE.

.LONG TERM [SAT-TUE]...
A FAIRLY ROBUST SHRTWV TROF CUTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND... WITH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND A THREAT
OF SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRIER H5 RIDGE PATTERN SHOULD
DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD... PRODUCING SEASONABLY WARM AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SHRTWV TROF SHUD DEVELOP A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT BY TUESDAY... WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
ACCOMPANY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF APPCHG SFC TROF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHUD DIMINISH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IN NWRN MN WITH SCT
TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WEST OF
THE RED RIVER WILL SEE GENLY VFR CONDS WITH SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GODON/GUST/DK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-091345-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
638 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2010

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION REACHING THE VALLEY REGION BY THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR OR
AFTER 2PM AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. ANY
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND
COULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VOELKER

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