Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
615 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTH WINDS HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA...AND TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOW 90S. THIS HAS PROMPTED A
WIND ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH
FLOODING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY POSSIBLE...AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND VERY STRONG FORCING NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY DIE DOWN LATER THIS
EVENING TOWARDS 08Z AS THE BEST LIFT MOVES INTO CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX SCENARIO WITH TSRA POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH OUT THE
AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING. IFR TO MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH ON SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DVL TO REMAIN ON
COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT WITH MVFR CIGS AND NE WINDS. GFK...TVF AND
FAR EXPECTED TO MOVE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AS FIELDS OF CU MOVE
THROUGH. BJI TAF SITE TOOK A LIGHTNING STRIKE THIS MORNING AND
COMMS WENT DOWN...A RETURN TO OPERATION IS UNKNOWN UNTIL THEN AMD
NOT SKED. TSRA SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

SHORT TERM...
ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ELEVATED JUST ABOVE SFC LAYER DUE TO
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF 850 MB THETA-E CONTINUES TO HELP SPUR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FCST AREA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
A FEED OF MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES FROM WRN KS INTO CNTRL
NEBRASKA AND INTO SD/ER ND. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. SOME OF THESE WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT.

MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE WARM SECTOR AND AREA JUST SOUTH OF
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WARM FRONT SEPARATING TEMPS IN THE 60S FROM
THE LOW-MID 80S EXTENDS FROM ABOUT BEMIDJI TO ADA TO LA MOURE ND.
SFC TEMPS ALMOST 90 AT ELBOW LAKE. DEW PTS ALSO IN THE LOW 70S IN
WARM SECTOR. MODELS DOING WELL SO FAR IN HAVING WARM FRONT LIFT TO
NR A BAUDETTE TO THIEF RIVER TO GRAND FORKS TO COOPERSTOWN LINE
BTWN 21Z-23Z. SFC BASED CAPES IN WARM SECTOR NEAR 4000 J/KG WITH
LITTLE CAP LEFT PER SPC WEBPAGE. AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO EXPAND
AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ALMOST CERTAIN TO HAVE INCREASE IN SVR
STORMS NEXT 1-3 HOURS. TORNADIC STORMS QUITE PSBL DUE TO VERY HIGH
0-2KM VGP'S PROGGED TO BE UPWARDS OF 0.8 JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT.

TOR WATCH 215 VALID UNTIL 10 PM FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FCST AREA.

WILL MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF ERN ND THRU 06Z AS
PREV ISSUED. LOCALIZED RAINS FROM TODAYS STORMS OF 1.5 TO 2.50
INCHES IN 1 HOUR OR LESS.

DRY PUSH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM NE
COLORADO/WRN NEBRASKA TO WRN ND BY 06Z. THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE MOST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z.

TUESDAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN...ALMOST A REPEAT OF
SUNDAY...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS DVL BASIN WHERE
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY DAYTIME.
NAM SOUNDING INDICATES 45 KT WIND TO MIX DOWN IN GUSTS IN THE DVL
BASIN. WILL LET MIDSHIFT ISSUE ADVISORY AS TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH
THIS EVENINGS SEVERE WEATHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SUNNY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND. TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.

THURSDAY WILL START TO SEE INFLUENCE OF NEXT SYSTEM WITH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING IN.

LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN OF A
CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE NOSING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. WITH RISING THICKNESSES EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO
AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE WITH 850MB
TEMPS IN THE 14 TO 18 DEGREE RANGE SETTLE OVER THE REGION. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND BY SATURDAY
NIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026>029-038-049-052-054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029>032-040.

&&

DK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
510 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

NDZ006-014-015-024-026>029-038-049-052-054-251200-
TOWNER-BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-BARNES-
RANSOM-SARGENT-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
510 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THUS SOILS ARE
SATURATED. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ007-008-016-030-039-053-
251200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-TRAILL-CASS-RICHLAND-
510 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
700 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             ERSKINE                 47.66N 96.01W
05/24/2010  E0.75 INCH       POLK               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

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