Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
905 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONTINUED SEVERE STORM AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SURFACE LOW REMAINS ALONG ND/SD BORDER N OF ABR.
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WHICH WAS HUGGING ND/SD BORDER AREA HAS SAGGED
SOUTH INTO NE SD AND THEN INTO S MN. A COUPLE OF SEVERE/POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC STORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF BOUNDARY ACROSS RANSOM AND
RICHLAND COUNTY. ELSEWHERE BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ELEVATED STORMS ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND. THIS BAND BEGINNING TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST
AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS NE
SD AND SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES REMAINING
AROUND 1/5 INCH WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN WATCH FOR ANY FURTHER FLOOD
HEADLINES. ONGOING CONVECTION FARTHER WEST HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTING EAST ACROSS MN NOT SURE HOW LONG HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
WILL HOLD TOGETHER. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM REMAIN IN THE 60S SO ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ESE
ACROSS SE ND...NW AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
622 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-131130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
622 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY...AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH...WITH MIXED CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S.
IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES WILL CAUSE HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES BY LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET RESIDES NEAR THE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MINNESOTA BORDER REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE WEEKEND WILL BE
MUCH COOLER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

DTR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
622 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

MNZ040-130015-
GRANT MN-
622 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF HOFFMAN TO
16 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESVILLE...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

THE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HOFFMAN AROUND 715 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

JK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
706 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

NDZ049-052-053-130100-
RANSOM ND-RICHLAND ND-SARGENT ND-
706 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SARGENT...WESTERN
RICHLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN RANSOM COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 703 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF
FORMAN...OR 24 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRITTON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
CAYUGA AROUND 715 PM CDT.
GENESEO AROUND 725 PM CDT.
HAMLIN AROUND 740 PM CDT.
WYNDMERE AND BARNEY AROUND 800 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

JK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
843 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     TORNADO          1 S GENESEO             46.06N 97.28W
08/12/2010                   SARGENT            ND   PUBLIC

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
907 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEST FARGO              46.87N 96.90W
08/12/2010  E60 MPH          CASS               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
918 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     TSTM WND GST     FARGO                   46.88N 96.82W
08/12/2010  M67.00 MPH       CASS               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN SOUTH FARGO

&&

JH

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