Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
855 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS LATE NIGHT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  CONVECTION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG
ND/MT BORDER AREA ON NOSE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. LOW LEVEL JET
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH BOTH RUC AND GFS INDICATING
CORE OF JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION MAXIMA REACHING WESTERN FA AROUND
12Z. AS COMPLEX PROPAGATES EASTWARD CELLS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SE
FEEDING INTO LOW LEVEL JET AND GREATER INSTABILITY. FOR THIS WILL
NOT BE ALTERING CURRENT POPS A GREAT DEAL KEEPING BEST CHANCES
ACROSS SE FA. WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS MOST OF OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO PROPAGATE E THEN SE LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS TOWARDS MORNING
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200 AND RED RIVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
346 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-121200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
346 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEAR ANY STORMS. IF STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOP OVER AN AREA...THEN LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER
AND MINOR FLOODING MAY RESULT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TG