Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
321 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SHORT TERM...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO BE MOST CONSISTENT
OVER PREVIOUS RUNS SO FAVORING A BLENDED SOLN FOR NOW.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS TIMING FOR ONSET OF CONVECTION
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ERN MT/WRN ND
WITH SRLY FLOW OVER THE FA. MODELS INDICATING THE NOSE OF A 30 TO 35
KT 850 HPA JET OVER CENTRAL ND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...EXPECT SCT
TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE DVL BASIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR SUNDAY...AREA OF GREATEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO SHIFT OVER THE FA
DURING THE DAY. NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE OVER THE VALLEY
AROUND 18Z. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES...WITH
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. THUS...CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE. A SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING THRU THE FLOW AT 500 HPA SHOULD HELP
WITH LIFT. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
GET A BIT OF A BREAK MON AFTERNOON INTO TUE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN.

.LONG TERM (WED-FRI)...
REGION TO REMAIN IN MID LEVEL ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD. TIMING
OF PROGRESSIVE WAVES THROUGH FLOW WILL BE PRIMARY CHALLENGE. BEST
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHIFTS EAST PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CU FIELD ACROSS WESTERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO VFR
RANGES BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT SPOTTY CONVECTION TO REACH WESTERN
FA THIS EVENING HOWEVER VFR CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR IN
STRONGER STORMS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

HOPKINS/VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-011200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
700 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...LATE TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER ALL
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE STORMS WILL MOAT LIKELY BE SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES.

A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING MOIST UNSTABLE NORTHWARD. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COOL AIR ALOFT AND DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HOPPES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             5 S WALHALLA            48.85N 97.92W
07/31/2010  E1.00 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WBARRETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
637 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             5 W WALHALLA            48.92N 98.03W
07/31/2010  E1.25 INCH       CAVALIER           ND   PUBLIC

&&

WBARRETT