River Flood Warning 68, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
340 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER AND THEN
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS/NAM/
ECMWF/GEM HEIGHT/PRESSURE FIELDS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND
WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
DID SHY AWAY FROM GFS BEING A QPF/MOISTURE OUTLIER.

MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING LATE
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND SHOW A NEARLY ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO
850 HPA THIS AFTERNOON WITH 30 TO 40 KTS AVAILABLE TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR BARNES...RANSOM...SARGENT...
AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FROM 17 UTC TO 00 UTC WITH NORTHWEST WIND FROM
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT AS DEEP...BUT STILL EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH SURFACE WIND FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. 08 UTC SATELLITE SHOWS A
BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...BUT ALL
OTHER AREAS REMAIN CLEAR. WITH FEW CLOUDS UPSTREAM...MAIN QUESTION
IS WHETHER ADDITIONAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 850
HPA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. WITH THE SHORT-WAVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH TODAY...COULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS PRIMARILY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MN WHERE SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN ND WHERE GREATER SOLAR WILL BE THE RULE.

THURSDAY...A 300 HPA 140KT JET AND 850 HPA TO 700 HPA THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL BISECT THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF THE JET WITH MORE SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. THE GFS DOES PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
MN...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD
EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE GIVEN DEPTH OF MOIST LAYER NEAR
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER JET PUSHES EAST ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING A SURFACE HIGH TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN.
ASSUMING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

FOR THE WEEKEND...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
LOW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT (2000 TO 3000 FT) IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MN...BUT WILL NOT MENTION
ANY CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. MAIN STORY FOR THE DAY WILL BE BREEZY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35
KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NDZ038-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

ROGERS

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