River Flood Warning 65, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
215 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW TO HANDLE HEADLINES AS THE DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE MAIN IMPACT BEING
WIND AND NOT SO MUCH PCPN AMOUNTS AND PCPN TYPE ANY LONGER.

TONIGHT...REGIONAL 88D LOOP AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW THE PCPN SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE FA. AREA WEB CAMS SHOW VERY LITTLE FOR SNOW
LEFT IN THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT SOME IN GRASSY AREAS
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 10 CORRIDOR FROM LAKE PARK AND ROTHSAY OVER TOWARD
THE STAPLES AREA. SNOW THAT WAS ON THE GROUND IN KDVL HAS NEARLY ALL
MELTED TOO. HEAVIEST SNOW REPORTS WE RECEIVED THIS MORNING WERE OVER
OUR FAR WESTERN FA...FROM MADDOCK TO NEW ROCKFORD. SNOW IN THIS AREA
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO MELT AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE
TEMP FORECAST UNTIL IT DOES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL PCPN
TONIGHT AND IT MAY STILL BE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW UNTIL TEMPS FALL OFF
AFTER SUNSET. LIKE MENTIONED EARLIER WIND WILL BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT. SEEING SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM KMOT TO KJMS BUT JUST A
BIT LESS AS YOU MOVE EAST. INTO THE EARLY EVENING WIND SPEEDS MAY BE
BORDERLINE ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA BUT WILL DROP OFF INTO MORE OF
THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. WILL GO AHEAD AND
TRANSITION FROM THE WARNING PRODUCTS TO ALL ADVISORIES WITH THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COLDEST FROM
MADDOCK DOWN TO NEW ROCKFORD OVER THE FRESH SNOW BUT QUITE A BIT
WILL HINGE ON CLEARING. MODELS TRY TO BRING SOME CLEARING TOWARD THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARD MORNING BUT THIS MAY BE
TOO FAST. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLEARING TRENDS.

THU-SAT...HOW FAST CLOUDS MOVE OUT ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE TEMP FORECAST. ALSO THE SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE
FAR WEST WILL COME INTO PLAY. IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING TOMORROW MAY
BE ABLE TO GET SOME VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND. FOR OUR FA MAY BE ABLE TO MELT MOST IF NOT
ALL THE FRESH SNOW. SFC HIGH DROPS SOUTH OF OUR FA BY FRI MORNING
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS UP OVER OUR FA. THIS MEANS LIGHT WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A VERY COLD MORNING. HIGHS FOR FRI CONTINUE TO SHOW
RECOVERY. 12Z MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER FRI NIGHT OR SAT WHICH MAY DROP SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. NICE UPPER JET HELPS TO PROVIDE THE LIFT
FOR THIS EVENT...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AND SEE IF
THE MODELS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE VERY QUIET WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AND 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND +10C
OR EVEN A BIT WARMER BY NEXT WED. WILL START TO WARM TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN QUIET STRONG AND GUST OVER 35KT THROUGH AROUND
00Z. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUSTS OVER
20KT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BY THU...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING MOVES IN BY THU MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL FROM THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST HAS RESULTED IN RISING WATER
LEVELS ALONG PARTS OF THE MAINSTEM RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...AS WELL
AS ITS MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES. THE LATEST FORECASTS
ONLY EXPECT PARTS OF THESE RIVERS REACHING HIGH WATER STAGE OR MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL SOON MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING SOME TIME FOR THE RIVERS TO ABSORB AND
FLUSH THIS LATEST RAINFALL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

GODON/DK/GROCHOCINSKI

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