River Flood Warning 4, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS PCPN
COVERAGE/POPS. NEXT AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MN ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVE WRAPPING AROUND LOW BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ACROSS FAR SE FA
FROM KMVX-88D. RUC AND 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL SHOWING MORE
PERSISTENT QPF CLIPPING FAR SE FA IN ZONE OF LOWEST CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 290K SURFACE BEFORE
WEAKENING THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA CURRENT UNDER HIGHEST
AFTERNOON POPS SO THIS LOOKS GOOD. ELSEWHERE ANY PCPN LOOKS MORE
SPOTTY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS MINOR AS RADAR RETURNS SHOWING A
WEAKENING TREND. SPOTTY BR CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP FOG MENTIONED.
WILL LOOK OVER REMAINDER OF GRIDS BUT OVERALL NO BIG CHANCES
PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVER ALL BUT FAR NW FA TODAY. VSBYS
WILL LIKELY BE IN AND OUT OF MVFR/IFR RANGES WITH FOG AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MILDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN IN SOME
AREAS HAS PROMPTED RIVER FLOOD WATCHES FOR PARTS OF THE S RED
RIVER VALLEY. WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR FARGO AND WAHPETON ON
THE MAIN STEM RED...DILWORTH HAWLEY AND SABIN ON THE BUFFALO...AND
ABERCROMBIE ON THE WILD RICE. THE PROJECTION FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING. FORECASTS
WILL BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND UPGRADES TO
WARNINGS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS FORECAST CERTAINTY INCREASES.

BASED ON REPORTS FROM OFFICIALS...RECENT RAINFALL AND ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAS RESULTED IN ENHANCED SNOWMELT WITH SOME
SOME FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
TRENDS TO CONTINUE SO HAVE ISSUED AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
RICHLAND...WILKIN...CASS...CLAY AND NORMAN COUNTIES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHLAND AND CASS COUNTIES.
MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR WILKIN...CLAY AND NORMAN COUNTIES.

&&

VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-131300-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
646 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

...RIVER FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SOME RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER BASIN...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODIC RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH COULD
OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WAHPETON TO PARK RAPIDS LINE...WITH
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THIS LINE. COLDER AIR IN THE DEVILS LAKE REGION COULD PRODUCE A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...
LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINS WILL START TO PUSH SOME
RIVERS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN TO FLOOD STAGE OR HIGHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER AND FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS PLEASE PROVIDE PRECIPITATION REPORTS.

NG