River Flood Warning 34, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
151 AM CDT TUE APR 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS MORNING WILL BE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...SO
WILL KEEP DISCUSSION RATHER BRIEF. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND PREFER THE NAM FOR CONVECTIVE DETAILS.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT A BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES SEVERE ELEVATED
CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL
BE FED BY 50KT LLJ AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO LIFT INTO CANADA AFTER
18Z...AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION IN
THE FAR WEST. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST SOUTH AND HINGE ON AMOUNTS OF
INSOLATION. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY TODAY AS WELL WITH ABOUT 40-45KT
TO MIX BY LATE MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST...SO WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING IF A LINEAR STRUCTURE CAN
DEVELOP.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE OUT OF
CENTRAL ND INTO EASTERN ND AFTER 00Z WED. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
DYING AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR...WITH THE BEST SFC
INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL ND.

ON WED...EXPECT DRYING CONDITIONS AND WINDS SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY
STRONG WITH SW FLOW.

FOR THU-SAT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE MORNING. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30KT TODAY FOR
MOST SITES AND BE STRONGEST AT KDVL...KGFK AND KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040. AREAL FLOOD
     WARNING FOR WEST MARSHALL COUNTY.

&&

DK

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