River Flood Warning 16, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
215 PM CST SAT MAR 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOG...PCPN
CHANCES AND OF COURSE TEMPS. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SO WILL USE
A MODEL BLEND.

TONIGHT...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE THICKER CLOUDS OVER
NORTHWEST MN BUT IT APPEARS THESE WILL FILL BACK IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STILL HAVE VERY WEAK SFC FLOW SO THE FOG
THAT HAS BEEN PREVALENT FOR THE LAST HOW MANY DAYS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT...THICKENING TOWARD MORNING. MAY BE SOME DENSE FOG ISSUES
LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT WATCH THAT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SHOW A STRANGE LOOKING BATCH OF PCPN
ROTATING BACK INTO OUR WEST CENTRAL MN FA LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NAM ABOUT ALL MODELS HAVE THIS IN SOME FORM.
FORECAST ALREADY HAD A LOW CHANCE OF PCPN SO WILL LEAVE IT.

SUN-TUE...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS VERY STAGNANT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PRETTY WEAK SFC FLOW WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL MEAN HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR FOG.
UNLESS THERE IS SOME CLEARING DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY. LIKE TONIGHTS
FORECAST...STRANGE LITTLE BLOBS OF PCPN LINGER ON MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NOT QUITE SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THESE
...SO WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY FOR NOW AND LEAVE LOW CHANCES OF
PCPN ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER. WILL STAY WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW.

.LONG TERM [WED-SAT]...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND LATE IN THE
PERIOD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE RISING WITH BOTH FIELDS
AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT LAST TWO RUNS LINING UP WITH THE
CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS LAST FEW DAYS. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER FA AND WILL SEE WARMEST DAYS WED INTO
THURSDAY. COLUMN BEGINS TO COOL THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING FROPA AND
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF LONG RANGE. THE
ECMWF WHICH WAS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT THIS
WEEKEND HAS BACKED OFF NOW FOR TWO RUNS AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH GFS IN KEEPING MAIN PCPN CHANCES SOUTH OF FA. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH FROPA BUT OVERALL LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS REMAIN MOIST AND EXPECT WEAK MIXING TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER FA. THUS EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY IN BR. THERE CURRENTLY IS A CLEAR/VFR SLOT
OVER FAR NW MN HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY IN
FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY TRIBUTARIES IN MN ARE RESPONDING TO THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...MOST NOTABLY THE WILD RICE RIVER...
BUFFALO RIVER AND THE RED LAKE RIVER. EVEN THE MAINSTEM RED IS
SHOWING A LITTLE BIT OF A RISE AT WAHPETON AND FARGO. ICE ISSUES
CONTINUE TO BE EVIDENT ON AREA GAGES AS READINGS ARE VERY
VARIABLE. AN ICE JAM IS ONGOING AT TWIN VALLEY...CAUSING RIVER
LEVELS TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTS THAT THIS IS VERY TYPICAL FOR THE SPRING MELT AND THE
SITUATION HAS VIRTUALLY NO IMPACT AT THIS TIME. ONGOING AREAL
FLOODING IN THE SOUTH VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DITCHES AND CULVERTS OPEN AND ALLOW WATER TO WORK INTO THE RIVER
SYSTEM.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GODON/VOELKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1022 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2010

MNZ002-003-029-NDZ039-053-141630-
NORMAN-CLAY-WILKIN-CASS-RICHLAND-
1022 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAL FLOODING WILL RESULT IN ROADS GOING UNDER WATER IN LOW LYING
AREAS. ROADS IN THE VICINITY OF WAHPETON AND BRECKENRIDGE WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. RIVER FLOODING HAS ALREADY
BEGUN IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. CHECK OUT THE LATEST
HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON AREA RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SLOW MELT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE SLOW MELT CONTINUES LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL
ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MNZ001-004>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-049-052-054-141630-
WEST POLK-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-WEST MARSHALL-
EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-EAST POLK-
NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-
WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-
GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-
EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-RANSOM-
SARGENT-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1022 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SLOW MELT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE SLOW MELT CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO OVERLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.