Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
905 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

.UPDATE...
EARLY UPDATE TO REFLECT DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER N AND E GA
AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE
70-90 PERCENT RANGE. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS BUT
ALL IN ALL AIRMASS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. MOST STRONGER STORMS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL...BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. BDL

&&

.SHORT TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND
THE AREA FROM SATURDAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THERE IS A
WEAK BOUNDARY LAYING NW TO SE ACROSS GA WITH A LOT OF SMALLER
BOUNDARIES (MAINLY OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON) LINGERING
AROUND THE REGION ALSO. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SPINNING
OVER CENTRAL MS CONTINUES TO PULL DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GA. THIS IS EVIDENT BY THE LARGE MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM N FL TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATELLITE. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE OPENING
UP AND MOVING EAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE OVER ALL UPPER LEVEL
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP BY MID WEEK.  THERE ARE A FEW WEAK
WAVES ALONG THE MOISTURE PLUME THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH GA AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE WAVES
AND THE WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PULSE CONVECTION TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. INSTABILITY INDICES PEAK EVERY DAY
AROUND 18Z (CAPES EXPECTED IN THE 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE AND LIS
AROUND -2 TO -5) DURING THE PRIME HEATING OF THE DAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE VERY
LOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TORNADIC ACTIVITY...JUST STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
INSTABILITIES TAPPER OFF QUICKLY EACH DAY AFTER 00Z SO SHOULD SEE
THE STRONG STORMS ENDING AROUND 02Z-04Z. DID NOT INCLUDED SEVERE
WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS THAT DO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WITH THE SHORT TERM WE CONTINUE WITH A PULSE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE
ALMOST NON EXISTENT SO STILL ONLY LOOKING FOR GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE ALSO
INCREASES GREATLY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY...AND INTO GA TUE/WED. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH GA...BECOMING A
CATALYST FOR INCREASED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DAYS 4-6. AT THIS
TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON SCATTERED SEVERE WORDING THAT FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY AS THINGS DEVELOP.
BY FRIDAY THERE IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT SWEEP THROUGH FRI NIGHT/SAT PUTTING GA IN DRYER NWLY
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL SOME MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION
SAT/SUN SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT NO MORE THAN THAT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY-MORNING VSBY AND CIGS ARE THE CHALLENGES...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 15Z.  WIDELY-VARIED OBSERVATIONS ARE
REFLECTIVE OF THE SCATTERED...OFTEN HEAVY...RAIN IN THE PAST 24
HOURS.  LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN SEEING VSBYS
BELOW 1SM...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY.  EXPECT MOST SITES TO SETTLE INTO
ROUGHLY A 4-6SM BR OVC005 SITUATION BY SUNRISE...WITH LOCALLY LOWER
VSBYS...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO BKN040 BY NOON.  ATL TOWER HAS GONE
INTO THE CIG...AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH 13Z OR SO.  AS
FOR TSRA CHANCES...WITH THE LACK OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE FORCING
FEATURES...WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND TEMPO TSRA
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL REMAIN
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  65  82  66  85 /  60  40  60  30  50
ATLANTA         80  65  80  67  83 /  70  40  60  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     77  63  76  63  81 /  80  40  70  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    80  65  81  66  85 /  90  50  60  50  50
COLUMBUS        84  68  84  68  87 /  60  30  60  30  40
GAINESVILLE     79  65  79  66  83 /  80  50  70  50  50
MACON           85  67  86  68  89 /  60  30  60  30  40
ROME            82  67  83  67  85 /  90  50  60  50  50
PEACHTREE CITY  81  64  82  65  84 /  60  40  60  30  50
VIDALIA         85  69  85  69  90 /  60  20  60  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1201 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311615-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1201 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO
DRAW DEEP MOISTURE INTO GEORGIA TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. MOST STORMS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IF THEY
FORM...WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM TODAY. LOCALLY-HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE A REPEAT OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AND PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL
COLLIDE AND TRIGGER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1200 ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS CLIMBING...AS WELL. THIS WILL
MAKE LARGE HAIL FORMATION LESS LIKELY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HAIL THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...SO STORMS WILL BE OF THE
PULSE VARIETY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED AND PULSE NATURE OF THE POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
858 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKLIN                33.28N 85.10W
05/29/2010                   HEARD              GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            1 TREE DOWN

&&

SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1229 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

GAZ085-097-098-301730-
1229 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN TREUTLEN...LAURENS AND JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1226 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MINTER...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OTHER STRONG STORMS OVER THE AREA

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TREUTLEN...LAURENS AND JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
134 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

GAZ073-084-301830-
134 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN WILKINSON AND BALDWIN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 130 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER IRWINTON...MOVING NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER STRONG STORMS OVER THE AREA/

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WILKINSON AND BALDWIN COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

GAZ085-097-098-110>113-301915-
154 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN TELFAIR...
WHEELER...TOOMBS...MONTGOMERY...TREUTLEN...LAURENS AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 149 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS TELFAIR...WHEELER...TOOMBS...MONTGOMERY...TREUTLEN...LAURENS
AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO
LIKELY.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
TELFAIR...WHEELER...TOOMBS...MONTGOMERY...TREUTLEN...LAURENS AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
223 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

GAZ037-049-301945-
223 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAIN IN MORGAN AND OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BOSTWICK THAT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.

RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES ACROSS
PARTS OF MORGAN AND OCONEE COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE SUBJECT TO
MINOR FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF MORGAN AND OCONEE COUNTIES. DRIVERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
234 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

GAZ086-301900-
234 PM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TWIN CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH...WITH
OTHER STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COUNTY.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS EMANUEL COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM EDT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.