Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
325 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUED TO AFFECT N GA DURING
THE NIGHT AND LESS SO FOR CENTRAL GA ONCE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL GA
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.

SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO FOR N GA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.

A WARM AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND COULD BE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MODEL
GRIDS INDICATING HEAT INDICES OF 105 PLUS FOR ABOUT 5-10 COUNTIES OR
SO OVER THE FAR SE CWA STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS JUST BARELY GETTING TO 75.
WILL LET THE MID SHIFT DETERMINE WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY MIGHT BE
NEEDED SINCE IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES AND RH.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/EUROPEAN MODELS CONSISTENT MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH TO SE GA ON
THURSDAY AND NOSING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL GIVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH MOVING A
WEAKENED FORM OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE FOR
SUMMERTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. CURRENTLY THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH GA. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH 03Z TUE. MAINLY
BKN-OVC CEILINGS AT THE MOMENT...WITH HEIGHTS IN THE 1500-3000FT
LEVEL. THERE IS A WARM FRONT THAT HAS JUST MOVED NE OF THE STATE
SO IT SHOULD KEEP WINDS MAINLY WEST AT 6-12 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VSBYS SHOULD STAY VFR EXCEPT IN AND AROUND TSRA
DEVELOPMENT WHERE IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  73  94  72 /  50  60  40  40  30
ATLANTA         76  90  74  91  74 /  40  60  40  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     71  84  69  86  67 /  70  70  60  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    73  90  72  92  69 /  60  60  60  40  20
COLUMBUS        75  95  76  95  76 /  30  40  40  40  30
GAINESVILLE     73  90  73  91  72 /  60  70  60  40  30
MACON           75  96  75  95  74 /  30  40  40  40  40
ROME            74  91  73  94  71 /  60  60  60  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  91  73  92  71 /  40  50  40  40  20
VIDALIA         76  96  76  96  76 /  50  40  20  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

BDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
610 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
610 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH GEORGIA FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA DRIFTS NORTHWARD.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA WEAKENED OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500...AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES NEAR -4. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO VERY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH MINOR FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ON TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
338 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

GAZ048-049-059-122000-
338 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN NORTH JASPER...EAST NEWTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER REESE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH
JASPER...EAST NEWTON AND MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE REESE...FARRAR...
RUTLEDGE...HARD LABOR CREEK STATE PARK...NEWBORN...MANSFIELD...
MADISON...APALACHEE...GODFREY AND BUCKHEAD. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.   DRIVERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

GAZ060-122030-
354 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN PUTNAM COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA EXPERIMENT STATION...MOVING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS PUTNAM COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CENTRAL GEORGIA EXPERIMENT STATION...WILLARD...ROCK EAGLE 4-H
CENTER...HARMONY...EATONTON...WARFIELD...ROCKVILLE AND PHOENIX.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

16