Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
339 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN TEXAS
AND THE WESTERN GULF. MEANWHILE AN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE THROUGH
FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SATURDAY
INTO SOUTH GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. EXPECT BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA...AND THUS HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2500
J/KG ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORMS ON SATURDAY TO BE GUSTY WINDS. POPS DECREASE ON SUNDAY
ACROSS NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...JUST KEEPING CHANCE IN
FOR THE EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT.

GFS SHOWS INCREASING POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS TN/NORTH GA HOWEVER ECMWF IS NOT
SHOWING THIS FEATURE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THIS
CASE AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SHORTWAVE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT THE NEXT FEW
GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW.

PRECIP/CLOUDS ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CWA SETS UP ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS. AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD...AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC NOSES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS
SHOW SOME INDICATION OF THE TROUGH RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND MAY SEE
INCREASED POPS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ACCORDING THE GFS SOLUTION...OR WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND WITH
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY
AND FRIDAY.

11

&&

AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY BETWEEN
4SM AND 6SM...ARE EXPECTED. OF COURSE MVFR TO BRIEF...LOCAL IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF ANY
CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH CONCERNING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z ANS 02Z. CONFIDENCE IN ANY SINGLE
TAF SITE EXPERIENCING THUNDER IS MEDIUM AT BEST AT THIS TIME SO I AM
GOING WITH A CB TAG ON THE CLOUD GROUP TO BEGIN AND WILL AMEND AS
NEEDED FOR INDIVIDUAL SITES. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO
THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...COVERAGE INCREASES ENOUGH
FOR PROB30 14Z THROUGH 18Z.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  92  70  96  72 /  30  40  20  10  10
ATLANTA         74  89  72  93  74 /  30  50  20   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     69  86  65  89  67 /  30  40  20  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  89  67  94  68 /  30  50  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        76  93  73  94  76 /  20  40  40  10  10
GAINESVILLE     72  89  70  93  72 /  30  40  20  10  10
MACON           74  94  73  95  73 /  20  40  40  20   5
ROME            73  91  69  94  70 /  30  50  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  71  89  69  92  69 /  20  40  20   5  10
VIDALIA         76  94  76  94  76 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
615 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
610 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTHWEST GEORGIA TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEYS WILL PUSH INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY TONIGHT. THE
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE...NORTHWEST
GEORGIA CAN EXPECT TO SEE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -4 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SLIGHT
CHANCE MONDAY...AND A CHANCE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

GAZ110-100130-
901 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 50 MPH WINDS IN TELFAIR COUNTY
UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 857 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SCOTLAND TO CHINA HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TELFAIR COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE WORKMORE...CHINA HILL...SCOTLAND...MCRAE...
JACKSONVILLE...TOWNS...HORSE CREEK WMA AND LUMBER CITY. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
903 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

GAZ092-104-100145-
903 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN SUMTER AND
SCHLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 901 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA CROSSE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SUMTER AND SCHLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE AMERICUS...BUMPHEAD...LA CROSSE...
SHILOH...ANDERSONVILLE...ANDERSONVILLE NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE...NEW
ERA...PENNINGTON...HUNTINGTON...METHVINS...LAMAR AND DESOTO. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
907 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

GAZ056-057-100130-
907 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN SPALDING AND
HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 905 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAGLES LANDING TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DIGBEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS SPALDING AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE EAGLES LANDING...FLIPPEN...
STOCKBRIDGE...LOVEJOY...BLACKSVILLE...MCDONOUGH...ATLANTA MOTOR
SPEEDWAY...HAMPTON...SUNNY SIDE...LUELLA...WALKER MILL...BIRDIE...
EXPERIMENT...HIGHLAND MILLS AND TOWALAGA. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
908 PM EDT FRI JUL 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N WALESKA             34.36N 84.55W
07/09/2010                   CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FOUR TREES DOWN.

0659 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE WALESKA            34.37N 84.49W
07/09/2010  M59.00 MPH       CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JLF

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