Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY...AND
IT...COMBINED WITH VORT MAX OVER NE AL...WILL ACT AS THE TRIGGERING
MECHANISM FOR ENHANCED DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING
CLOUD COVER OVER NW GA HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES TO WARM AS QUICKLY
AS EXPECTED...AND HAS HINDERED THE START OF THE AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY ALREADY PRESENT ALONG THE GA/SC LINE
AND NEAR COLUMBUS AND MACON. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITIES AND LITTLE
SHEAR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT PULSE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
GEORGIA INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
QUICKLY MOVES AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WEEKS PREVAILING WEST WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY...
PULLING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH BETTER INSTABILITIES INTO NEXT WEEK...HAVE CONTINUED
WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 90S. SUNDAY WILL BE 17 DAYS OF AT OR
ABOVE 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR THE ATLANTA AREA. THIS
STRETCH...BEGINNING JUNE 11...RANKS IN THE TOP 25 MOST CONSECUTIVE
DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES...WITH THE RECORD BEING 38 DAYS.
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEM A LITTLE WARM FOR SUNDAY...SO HAVE
GENERALLY GONE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN IT SUGGESTS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
INTO TUESDAY...DRAGGING WITH IT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY KEEPS CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MODELS PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH GEORGIA AND
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THURSDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ECMWF KEEPS SOME
MOISTURE ACROSS EXTREME SE GA INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST
TENDS TOWARDS THE ECMWF RESOLUTION...AND 12Z RUN ONLY UPHOLDS THIS
DECISION. GFS GOES FOR A DIFFERENT SITUATION...SPLITTING AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF FROM TS ALEX IN THE GULF...THEN DEEPENING THAT
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS THEN DRAGS
THE LOW ACROSS N FL AND SE GA BEFORE PUSHING IT OUT INTO THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC BIGHT BY SATURDAY PM. IF THIS RESOLUTION UNFOLDS...POPS
WOULD GREATLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...PREFER THE
ECMWF STORY...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. JUST GIVE THE GFS SOME TIME.

31
&&

.AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER NORTHEAST GA/CAROLINAS CONVECTION
SURGING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE METRO ATLANTA TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED...OVER
GWINNETT COUNTY. BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH PDK AROUND 00Z AND ATL NEAR
01Z. STILL A WINDOW OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INVOF OF THE
AIRFIELD ESPECIALLY NEARER TO 01Z...OR PERHAPS SHORTLY THEREAFTER
FOR ATL. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST THOUGH A BIT CHAOTIC
DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...THOUGH EXPECT A
PERIOD OF NE WINDS BEHIND THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY THIS EVENING FOR
THE METRO ATL TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST LIKELY BETTER COVERAGE THAN TODAY.

07
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  93  73  93  71 /  20  40  20  50  40
ATLANTA         74  92  74  90  73 /  20  40  20  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  88  68  88  69 /  20  40  30  50  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  93  70  91  68 /  20  40  30  50  40
COLUMBUS        75  95  75  92  74 /  20  50  20  50  40
GAINESVILLE     73  92  73  91  72 /  20  40  30  50  40
MACON           73  94  75  92  73 /  30  50  20  50  40
ROME            69  93  72  92  70 /  20  40  30  50  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  92  72  91  69 /  20  40  20  40  40
VIDALIA         77  95  75  92  75 /  30  40  30  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1101 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1101 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL
DRIFT INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY...AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CAPES WILL INCREASE
TO 2500 TO 3000 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES
DECREASING TO -3 TO -6. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM TODAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXCEPT
ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

GAZ059-270030-
758 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN JASPER
COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 754 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF MONTICELLO...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE THAT NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. RESIDENTS IN
THIS AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES
SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
837 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

GAZ071>073-270115-
837 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN JONES...
BALDWIN AND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 833 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAYSIDE...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS JONES...BALDWIN AND MONROE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING AREAS AROUND WAYSIDE...ROUND OAK...BRADLEY...CLINTON...
BLOUNTSVILLE...GRAY...MOUNTAIN SPRINGS...POSTELL...GREENBERRY
CROSSROADS...JAMES...HADDOCK AND GRISWOLDVILLE. RESIDENTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD
NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
844 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

GAZ082-083-095-096-107-270115-
844 PM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN PULASKI...
BLECKLEY...HOUSTON...TWIGGS AND BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 841 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ELBERTA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LIGHTNING DETECTION SYSTEMS INDICATE NUMEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS PULASKI...BLECKLEY...HOUSTON...TWIGGS AND
BIBB COUNTIES...INCLUDING AREAS AROUND HOUSTON LAKE...ELBERTA...
WARNER ROBINS...ROBINS AIR FORCE BASE...BONAIRE...SAND BED...
KATHLEEN...MAGNOLIA...ROYAL...DISTRICT PATH...TARVERSVILLE...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MARION AND BULLARD. RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY INDOORS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND TELEPHONES SHOULD NOT BE USED
UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

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