Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1135 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

.UPDATE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH GA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP. TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE 8AM TO 2 PM TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

(PREVIOUS)
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE TN/GA BORDER PUSHES INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/ECMWF/NAM SLOWLY PUSH
THE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND STALL IT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS NEAR 3000 J/KG. WITH THESE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN THOSE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN. HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES
ARE HIGH...BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
CWA AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD THE MET FOR HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND THEN
A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE...WE ARE NOT FORECAST TO BREAK ANY HIGH TEMP RECORDS.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS...BUT
AGAIN WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ANY RECORD BREAKING HIGH MIN
TEMPS...EXCEPT IN COLUMBUS WHERE WE MAY TIE THE RECORD HIGH MIN
TEMP THIS MORNING.

RECORDS FOR 06-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     105 1914     72 1979     76 1931     58 1922
   KATL     100 1914     70 1991     76 1952     59 1889
                                        1914
   KCSG     101 1988     76 1963     76 1996     61 1974
   KMCN     101 1950     76 1979     77 1930     59 1990
                1930        1963

RECORDS FOR 06-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 1914     71 1991     75 1914     57 1974
   KATL     100 1914     70 1991     77 1952     56 1974
                            1961
   KCSG      99 1988     72 1991     77 1969     60 1974
                1986
                1954
   KMCN     102 1954     75 1991     77 1952     62 1936
                1952
                1950

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. GFS PROGS IT TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON MONDAY TO NORTH GEORGIA AS
A TROPICAL LOW PUSHES INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH GEORGIA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THIS LOW AND
MOSTLY ON THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NW GEORGIA ON
TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
COLD FRONT AS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUN. ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST...THE GFS IS THE FASTER
SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT ENTERING GEORGIA ON TUESDAY AND PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID NOT
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...HOWEVER THE LATEST
RUN...00Z...BRINGS THE FRONT INTO N GA TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS RUNS IN REGARDS TO THE FRONT BUT WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE ECMWF RUNS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. AT
THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS LOW. POPS AND
TEMPS ARE DEPENDENT ON THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO
BECOME NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. VERY SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS WITH CU DEVELOPING AROUND 15Z. HOWEVER MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE STALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH VCTS ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A WESTERLY WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...GOING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          96  73  96  72  95 /  40  20  30  20  30
ATLANTA         94  74  94  74  91 /  40  20  30  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     89  67  90  66  90 /  40  20  30  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    94  68  94  69  94 /  40  20  30  20  40
COLUMBUS        95  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     94  73  94  72  93 /  40  20  30  20  40
MACON           96  73  95  73  95 /  30  20  30  20  30
ROME            95  69  95  70  94 /  40  20  30  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  94  70  94  70  92 /  30  20  30  20  30
VIDALIA         97  75  96  74  96 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

11/41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261530-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WILL DRIFT INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4000 THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3000. THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE 2 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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