Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
542 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING INTO NW GA FROM TN
AND N AL...ASSOCIATED WITH PSEUDO-STATIONARY BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NC INTO NW TN. INCREASED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY ACROSS NW GA TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS ARE THE FIRST OF TWO WAVES TO IMPACT THE
AREA...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

MODELS INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US. LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
BACK INTO TN. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO GA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A BIAS TOWARDS
PERSISTENCE...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT GIVEN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ACROSS THE
STATE...HAVE TENDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CWA. BOUNDARY INFLUENCE REFLECTED IN SWITCH TO EAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE BY FRIDAY PM...AND WITH GOOD FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS S GA SHOULD FUEL THOSE PM TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW
SAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SAT PM.

PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY SEEM SLIGHT TOO WARM WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. HAVE TENDED
TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY LOW
TEMPS...AND HAVE SIDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE HIGHS FRIDAY
ACROSS N GA BEHIND THE FRONT. STAYED WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV MET FOR
SAT TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT
SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAGGED BEHIND THE LOW...SETTING UP ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SEEMS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY AT BAY...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE CWA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL AIR MASS EXPECTED...AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH WARM HIGHS AND MILD LOWS.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT TS CURRENTLY IN NW GA TO BE NEAR ATL METRO TAF SITES BY 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY SEE SOME
ISOLD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE TS MOVE THROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 01Z AT ATL METRO SITES AND BY 02Z AT CSG-MCN-AHN. GFS IS
SLOWER ON THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NE AT ATL AS IT INDICATES 15Z FRIDAY
COMPARED TO 06Z SHOWN BY THE NAM. GFS TRIES TO BRING WINDS BACK TO
THE NW BUT PLAN ON LEANING TOWARD THE NAM AND STICKING WITH NE WINDS
AT 6KTS. NEITHER GFS OR NAM MOS ARE INDICATING TS FOR FRIDAY AFTN.
BASED ON THIS AND WEAKER INSTABILITIES...WILL REMOVED CB FROM TAF AT
THIS TIME.

JLF
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  94  71  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         72  92  74  91  72 /  20  20  20  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     63  88  63  85  63 /  20  20  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    67  93  68  91  65 /  20  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS        74  95  74  95  73 /  20  30  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     70  91  70  90  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
MACON           71  95  72  93  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
ROME            69  94  69  93  68 /  20  20  10  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  68  92  68  92  66 /  20  20  20  30  20
VIDALIA         74  94  74  91  73 /  20  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
554 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AS
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SLIDES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE HOT...HUMID AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN HEAT UP INTO
THE 90S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WITH CAPE VALUES AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 2000-3000. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL ADD TO THE INSTABILITY...
ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
559 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

GAZ031>033-041>045-172230-
559 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...NICKEL
SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS IN DOUGLAS...CARROLL...HARALSON...
DEKALB...PAULDING...COBB AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SANDY PLAINS TO TALLAPOOSA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED A GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE STORMS. THIS
GUST FRONT CONTAINS WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND COULD PUSH DOWN SMALL
TREES. IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS DOUGLAS...CARROLL...HARALSON...DEKALB...PAULDING...COBB
AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE UNION...LOST MOUNTAIN PARK...JIM R MILLER
PARK...SANDY PLAINS...WHITE WATER PARK...POWDER SPRINGS...MARIETTA...
HIRAM...NEW GEORGIA...TALLAPOOSA...DRAKETOWN...TEMPLE...DOBBINS AIR
RESERVE BASE...BROWNSVILLE AND BREMEN. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
625 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

GAZ095-096-107-172300-
625 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN PULASKI...
BLECKLEY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 622 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER KATHLEEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PULASKI...BLECKLEY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HOUSTON LAKE...SAND
BED...KATHLEEN...BONAIRE...CLINCHFIELD...HAYNEVILLE...MAGNOLIA...
KLONDIKE...OCMULGEE PUBLIC FISHING AREA...BROWNDALE...PORTER...
PAULK...PULASKI STATE PRISON...WALLACE AND MOBLEY CROSSING. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
631 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

GAZ032>034-044-045-053>057-067>069-078-079-172300-
631 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DIME SIZED
HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS IN HARRIS...TALBOT...UPSON...PIKE...
MERIWETHER...SPALDING...COWETA...FAYETTE...HENRY...CLAYTON...DEKALB..
.COBB...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 624 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BROOKHAVEN TO 36 MILES WEST OF THOMAS
CROSSROADS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED A GUST FRONT FROM ATLANTA...TO NORTHEAST
OF NEWNAN TO BOWDON. WINDS ALONG THIS GUST FRONT COULD REACH 35 TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS BEHIND THIS GUST FRONT HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS HARRIS...TALBOT...UPSON...PIKE...
MERIWETHER...SPALDING...COWETA...FAYETTE...HENRY...CLAYTON...DEKALB..
.COBB...GWINNETT AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
655 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

GAZ071-081-082-172345-
655 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN CRAWFORD...BIBB AND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 652 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAKE TOBESOFKEE TO SANDY POINT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS CRAWFORD...BIBB AND MONROE COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE MUSELLA...
BOLINGBROKE...LAKE TOBESOFKEE...WESLEYAN...SANDY POINT...LIZELLA...
PAYNE CITY...MACON...FRIENDSHIP...SKIPPERTON...ELBERTA...MIDDLE
GEORGIA REGIONAL AIRPORT...RUTLAND AND JACK BROWN ESTATES. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

GAZ066-067-180015-
726 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DIME SIZED
HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS IN TROUP AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
EDT...

AT 724 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR GREENVILLE...TO
MOUNTVILLE...TO JUST NORTH OF LOUISE....MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TROUP AND MERIWETHER COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.