Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING EXTREMELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LAPS ANALYSIS MLCAPES AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG IN VERY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND DELTA
THETA-E AROUND 30K...THE RESULT IS A PRETTY CLASSIC PULSE STORM
ENVIRONMENT. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE 12Z
FFC SOUNDING SHOWED H5 TEMPS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
BMX...ENOUGH ONLY TO DELAY STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE...THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS A BIT TO OUR WEST. A COASTAL
TROUGH BECOMES A BIT BETTER DEFINED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE
AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES STARTING TO CROSS GEORGIA
SHOULD LEAD TO STORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IN
SPITE OF SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO FLORIDA/GEORGIA FROM THE
EAST...WITH US REMAINING ON THE VERY WARM AND MUGGY WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...MAINLY OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING VARIETY.

RRH

&&

.AVIATION...
TS DEVELOPED ACROSS MAJORITY OF TAF SITES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z ALTHOUGH GFS INDICATES TS MAY HOLD ON
THROUGH 12Z. SOME WIND SHIFTS AND GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE WITH
OUTFLOW FROM TS...BUT WILL MAINLY REMAIN IN W FLOW...BECOMING NW
WEDNESDAY BY 18Z. HZ/BR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT
THE SITES THAT RECEIVED RA THIS AFTERNOON. TS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL INCLUDE CB IN TAFS FOR NOW...SINCE LOCATION WILL
BE SCATTERED.

JLF
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  94  71  95  70 /  30  30  30  30  20
ATLANTA         75  93  74  92  70 /  30  40  30  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     70  88  68  89  64 /  30  40  30  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    69  93  69  92  67 /  30  40  30  40  20
COLUMBUS        76  96  74  92  73 /  30  40  30  40  20
GAINESVILLE     73  93  72  92  70 /  30  40  30  30  20
MACON           74  95  73  94  72 /  30  30  30  40  20
ROME            73  93  71  93  67 /  30  40  30  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  72  93  70  92  68 /  30  40  30  40  20
VIDALIA         76  96  75  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CLARKE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...
JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MONROE...
MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE SLIGHTLY EAST THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP INTO THE REGION. WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. SMALL
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS...TO COVINGTON...TO ATHENS.

.DISCUSSION...
THE HOT...HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEAST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER 2000. THE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB...HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. WITH THESE VERY HOT
CONDITIONS...HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
624 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             1 NW SENOIA             33.31N 84.57W
06/15/2010  E0.75 INCH       COWETA             GA   PUBLIC

&&

JDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
628 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             5 SE PEACHTREE CITY     33.35N 84.52W
06/15/2010  E0.25 INCH       FAYETTE            GA   PUBLIC

&&

JDW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
638 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TALBOTTON               32.68N 84.54W
06/15/2010                   TALBOT             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1 TREE DOWN

&&

JDW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
639 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

GAZ047>049-152315-
639 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN NEWTON...MORGAN AND WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 638 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RUTLEDGE THE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEWTON...MORGAN AND WALTON COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RUTLEDGE...HARD LABOR
CREEK STATE PARK...HERNDONVILLE...EBENEZER...SOCIAL CIRCLE...REESE
AND BRICK STORE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
641 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             8 E MARIETTA            33.95N 84.41W
06/15/2010  E0.88 INCH       COBB               GA   PUBLIC

&&

JDW