River Flood Warning 135, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
650 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER GEORGIA GRADUALLY MOVING EAST AS STRONG CLOSED
LOW PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM MOVING TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTH AND WEST GEORGIA LATER THIS
EVENING. HIGHEST POPS 06Z TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG 50KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE
TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISHING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD. CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES LOOK MARGINAL AND
SPC HAS NOT INCLUDED US IN A RISK OF SEVERE AT THIS TIME. FOR
NOW...WILL MENTION SCATTERED THUNDER MAINLY NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AS
IT SAGS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM. HAVE RAISED MINS TOWARD WARMER MET FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS ARE A TOSS UP BUT STILL SHOULD BE ON
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST QPF OF AROUND 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES SHOULD NOT POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS REQUIRING A
WATCH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW SO
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.

41
&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT.
FIRST AREA OF DYING CONVECTION MOVING NE FROM S AL/MS SHOULD REACH
ATL TAF SITES AROUND 06Z AS -SHRA...WITH MVFR CIGS. MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL REACH ATL TAF SITES IN THE 12Z-15Z PERIOD...PUSHING
THROUGH BY 18-19Z...AFFECTING AHN-MCN-CSG MAINLY IN THE 16Z-20Z
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS...IFR-LIFR CIGS...AND MVFR VSBY CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
TSRA OUT GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND TYPICAL WINTERTIME HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA MOSTLY NW-W OF
ATL...WITH DECREASING CHCS FURTHER EAST. IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS
WILL LINGER PAST 00Z AS SYSTEM CRAWLS SE OF THE AREA. WINDS ESE-SE
UNTIL SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION REACHES TAF SITES MOSTLY AFT 15Z
SAT. PROBLEMATIC PERIOD OF 18015G25KT POSSIBLE FOR ATL IN THE
14Z-18Z TIME PERIOD...WITH WIND DIR LINGERING NEAR 180 UNTIL 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF VFR TO MVFR TO IFR CIGS AFT 04Z.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONTINUATION OF IFR CIGS AFT 18Z THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z SUN.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VISIBILITY THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THROUGH TAF
VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TSRA POTENTIAL 12Z-20Z SAT.

19
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  59  50  59 /  40  70  60  20
ATLANTA         56  62  47  56 /  60  80  50  20
BLAIRSVILLE     45  54  41  53 /  60  90  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    52  62  40  53 /  70 100  40  10
COLUMBUS        57  69  52  60 /  40  60  50  20
GAINESVILLE     51  57  46  57 /  50  80  60  10
MACON           56  70  56  63 /  20  60  50  30
ROME            54  62  39  52 /  80 100  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  53  65  47  56 /  60  70  50  20
VIDALIA         55  71  57  65 /  10  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

41/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-011000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
345 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM THE
MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THIS EVENING.
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
TODAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO COLDER...WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FOR ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET IN
THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.

.DISCUSSION...
A FULL-LATITUDE MERIDIONAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.
A WEDGE OF COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
RAPIDLY NORTH DURING THE MORNING AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 60
TO 65 MPH BRINGS WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF. MIDDAY CAPE VALUES OF 200 NORTH TO 500 CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL
COMBINE WITH EXCESSIVE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY VALUES OF 500 OR GREATER
TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST GEORGIA AFTER DAYBREAK...BE NEAR
ATLANTA BY MIDDAY...AND INTO EAST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
CLOSELY TODAY AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
653 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AUBURN                  34.01N 83.83W
11/30/2010                   BARROW             GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            BARROW COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF TWO TREES DOWN IN
            AUBURN.

&&

AGIBBS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 W JEFFERSONVILLE     32.68N 83.53W
11/30/2010                   TWIGGS             GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TWIGGS COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORT OF TREE LIMBS DOWN ON
            HIGHWAY 129.

&&

AGIBBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
746 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION POINT             33.61N 83.07W
11/30/2010                   GREENE             GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            GREENE COUNTY 911 RELAYED REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS DOWN IN
            THE UNION POINT AREA.

&&

AGIBBS