Fire Weather Watch 21, NWS Atlanta, GA

Baldwin County, GA, Banks County, GA, Barrow County, GA, Bartow County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Butts County, GA, Carroll County, GA, Catoosa County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Chattooga County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Clayton County, GA, Cobb County, GA, Coweta County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dade County, GA, Dawson County, GA, DeKalb County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Douglas County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Fannin County, GA, Fayette County, GA, Floyd County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Fulton County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Gordon County, GA, Greene County, GA, Gwinnett County, GA, Hall County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Haralson County, GA, Harris County, GA, Heard County, GA, Henry County, GA, Houston County, GA, Jackson County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lumpkin County, GA, Macon County, GA, Madison County, GA, Marion County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Murray County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Paulding County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Pike County, GA, Polk County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Schley County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Towns County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Troup County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Union County, GA, Upson County, GA, Walker County, GA, Walton County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, White County, GA, Whitfield County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA

756 
WWUS82 KFFC 132016
RFWFFC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
416 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

GAZ001>005-011>013-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-140430-
/O.CON.KFFC.FW.A.0020.101014T1900Z-101014T2300Z/
/O.CON.KFFC.FW.A.0021.101015T1700Z-101015T2300Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-
FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-
PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-
ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-
FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-
TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
416 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
GEORGIA...OUTSIDE THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE SAME AREA.

DRY FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH AND GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

DRY FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 18 TO 25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH AND GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO ONCE AGAIN
CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE WATCH THURSDAY INCLUDES PARTS OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND ALL OF
THE OCONEE NATIONAL FORESTS.

THE WATCH FRIDAY INCLUDES ALL OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND OCONEE
NATIONAL FORESTS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN 12 TO
96 HOURS. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES ON WHETHER
YOU MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&



$$

GAZ006>009-014>016-140430-
/O.CON.KFFC.FW.A.0021.101015T1700Z-101015T2300Z/
FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
416 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

DRY FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OF 18 TO 25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH AND GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO GAIN
CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND OCONEE NATIONAL
FORESTS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN 12 TO
96 HOURS. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES ON WHETHER
YOU MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&



$$

232 
WWUS82 KFFC 140740
RFWFFC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

GAZ001>005-011>013-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141545-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FW.A.0020.101014T1900Z-101014T2300Z/
/O.CON.KFFC.FW.A.0021.101015T1700Z-101015T2300Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-
FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-
PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-
ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-
FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-
TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-
GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-
WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-
MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-
SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-TELFAIR-WHEELER-
MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
340 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA 
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

ALTHOUGH FUEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
PERCENT...THEREFORE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE WATCH FRIDAY INCLUDES ALL OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND OCONEE
NATIONAL FORESTS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITHIN 12 TO 96
HOURS. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES ON WHETHER YOU
MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&


$$

GAZ006>009-014>016-141545-
/O.CON.KFFC.FW.A.0021.101015T1700Z-101015T2300Z/
FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
340 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING .

DRY FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND OCONEE NATIONAL FORESTS. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITHIN 12 TO 96
HOURS. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES ON WHETHER YOU
MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD OF
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

$$

843 
WWUS82 KFFC 141918
RFWFFC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
318 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

GAZ001>005-011-012-019-020-030-150330-
/O.UPG.KFFC.FW.A.0021.101015T1700Z-101015T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.FW.W.0030.101015T1700Z-101015T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.FW.W.0029.101014T1918Z-101014T2300Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-FLOYD-
BARTOW-POLK-
318 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING THAT IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

DRY FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO CREATE
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE WARNING TODAY INCLUDES PARTS OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE NATIONAL
FORECAST AND THE WARNING TOMORROW INCLUDES ALL OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE
NATIONAL FOREST. 

PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES ON WHETHER
YOU MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

&&



$$

GAZ006>009-013>016-021>025-027-031>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150330-
/O.UPG.KFFC.FW.A.0021.101015T1700Z-101015T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KFFC.FW.W.0030.101015T1700Z-101015T2300Z/
FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-CHEROKEE-
FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-
GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-
DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-
TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-
JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-
MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-
TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-
TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-
TELFAIR-WHEELER-MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-
318 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS UPGRADED THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY TO A RED FLAG WARNING. IT IS IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY.

DRY FUEL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COMBINE WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND OCONEE NATIONAL
FORESTS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES ON
WHETHER YOU MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE
EXTREME CAUTION.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

&&



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
428 AM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
EARLIER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...RAPIDLY
WEAKENING/FILLING...AND SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARD GA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING SE
FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SE U.S.
TONIGHT/EARLY THU AS DEEP CYCLOGENESIS EVOLVES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THESE TWO
SYSTEMS. DEEP NW FLOW SFC-ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER/MUCH COOLER AIR
INTO THE SE U.S. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL DEAMPLIFY AND REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK. A CENTRAL U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE SW U.S. AND GRUDGINGLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
WARMER/YET CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE CWA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

19
&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH AL EARLY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WEST CENTRAL GA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CLOSED LOW. IN FACT...BY
MID DAY...MODELS SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETELY PHASED OUT
AND A HARDLY RECOGNIZABLE TROUGH ALONG THE SC/NC COAST. A DYING
AREA OF SHRA SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA FROM SW-NE THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH NIL UPPER DYNAMICS AND MINIMAL THERMODYNAMIC
SUPPORT AT THIS TIME OF DAY...WILL NOT MENTION ANY TSRA THROUGH 18Z.
BY AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE STRONG SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES/SC CANADA...THAT WILL HELP TO CARVE
OUT A DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. A POCKET OF -16C
TO -18C LAGS BEHIND THIS TROUGH...BUT REMAIN CONCERNED THAT WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS...AND DAYTIME HEATING THAT
WE WILL SEE SHRA AND EVEN SOME TSRA WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL MODELS
SHOW AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY SWEEPING THROUGH THE N HALF OF THE CWA
IN THE 00Z-12Z THU TIME FRAME. FRANKLY...I CONSIDER THE THREAT FOR
TSRA WITH THIS FEATURE GREATER THAN THAT ONGOING
CURRENTLY...LARGELY BECAUSE OF STEEP INDUCED LAPSE RATES AND MUCH
BETTER UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING. FOR THIS REASON...I WILL BE CONTINUING
THE MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS N GA THIS EVENING...AND PLAN TO PULL S TO
INCLUDE RMG...VPC...JUST NORTH OF ATL...TOWARD AHN LATER. THE BEST
FORCING WILL CLEARLY REMAIN N OF THE REGION...BUT I WOULD NOT BE THE
LEAST BIT SURPRISED TO SEE PEA TO PENNY-SIZED HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON 27
SEP. NOTE SPCS "SEE TEXT" IS NOT FAR TO THE N OF THE GA BORDER. SOME
SHRA MAY LINGER TOWARD AHN-AGS AFT 06Z...BUT THE THREAT FOR TSRA
SHOULD END QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS A TEMP/WIND FORECAST AS VERY DRY
AIR SPREADS SE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SE U.S. AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE/FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH A
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA IS NOTED AFT 18Z
THU...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM +12C EARLY IN THE DAY TO +6C BY
EVENING ACROSS N GA...THEN HOLDING IN THE +8C TO +10C RANGE FRI-SAT.
EXPECT MAX/MIN TEMPS TO FALL ON AVERAGE 10-12 DEGREES FROM
THU-FRI...WITH FRI BEING OVERALL THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM.
MAV MOS SHOWS ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S FRI
MORNING...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED WIND...VERY SPOTTY NATURE OF ANY
LOCATIONS HAVING MIN TEMPS BELOW 40F...AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR +8C AT
THAT TIME...DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
BRING GUSTY NW WINDS TO THE AREA BOTH THU AND FRI...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME. AT THIS POINT...SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY BY LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL DEAMPLIFY RATHER QUICKLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC SENDS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE WESTERN
U.S....WHICH WILL DEVELOP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
SW U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VERY DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WILL LIFT OUT RATHER
QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW. A
LARGE MASS OF DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SE U.S. INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DEAMPLYFING UPPER RIDGE
SPREADING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE SE U.S...AND CORRESPONDING
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE SE U.S. 850MB TEMPS
WARM BACK INTO THE +12C RANGE BY MON. THIS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT MIN TEMPS WILL STILL ONLY BE NEAR NORMAL.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE REPEATEDLY...ECMWF/GFS HIGHLY DISCREPANT IN
HANDLING THE SW U.S. UPPER LOW BEYOND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS CONTINUES PUSHING IT EAST AND ALLOWS IT TO EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE TO
THE SC U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HOLDS A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN THE SW U.S...AND MAINTAINS A STRONGER POLAR
VORTEX. EITHER SITUATION WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A PATTERN OFTEN
SEEN IN THESE PARTS IN EARLY DECEMBER...NAMELY WARM...PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...AND SMALL CHANCES OF INSIGNIFICANT PCPN. FORTUNATELY...ALL
OF THIS REMAINS BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
ALL EXTENDED PERIODS DRY.

19
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LOSS OF HEATING HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS
MORNING DESPITE APPROACH OF UPPER SHORT WAVE...STILL PROGGD TO
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW
NO CONVECTION ALL SITES EXCEPT CSG WHERE SHOWERS IN AL SHOULD HOLD
TOGETHER BEFORE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO SHOW
SOME LOWERING TO BKN050-060 BY 07-08Z AS THE UPPER VORT LOBE
TRACKS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. SATL SHOWS CLEARING OVER WESTERN
AL...SO EXPECT TO SCT SOMETIME LATER THIS MORNING...MAYBE 10-12Z
AT ATL. MID LEVEL CIGS RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH...THEN MOVE ACROSS ATL LATER
TONIGHT. WINDS WSW LESS THAN 5 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
5-7KTS BY MID MORNING...THEN WNW NEAR 10 KTS BY 20Z...THEN NW BY
08-10Z THU WITH ACTUAL FROPA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDS AND CHC SHRA TODAY WILL PREVENT CRITICAL RH VALUES FROM
BEING REALIZED. HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL
BEGIN TO DRIVE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S BY THU
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 15-20KT NW WINDS. DURATION MAY NOT QUITE BE
MET...SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN RFW AT THIS TIME...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A FWW FOR THU AFTERNOON FOR ALL EXCEPT THE NE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER...SLIGHTLY WETTER
FUELS...AND COOLER TEMPS SHOULD PREVENT CRIICAL CRITERIA...BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. FOR FRI...VERY DRY
AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
30S. CRITICAL RH VALUES APPEAR TO BE MET FOR 6-7 HOURS AT MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. GUSTY NW WINDS MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE ON
BACK SIDE OF STRONG SFC LOW OFF MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THUS...HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FWW FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR FRI AFTERNOON.

19
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          81  55  76  46  76 /  20  20   0   0   5
ATLANTA         80  55  71  44  74 /  20  20   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     73  50  66  40  68 /  20  40   5   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    79  51  71  42  73 /  20  30   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        84  58  79  47  76 /  20  20   0   0   5
GAINESVILLE     78  58  72  45  72 /  20  20   0   0   5
MACON           85  57  81  46  77 /  20  20   0   0   5
ROME            80  50  70  42  73 /  20  30   0   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  52  73  43  75 /  20  20   0   0   5
VIDALIA         85  61  84  48  77 /  20  10   5   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...
BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...MACON...
MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...
MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...
BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

19/39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
935 PM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-130915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
935 PM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA THROUGH
LATE EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...AND INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE TOWARD MORNING.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND MAINLY WEST OF A THOMASTON TO WINDER
TO HELEN LINE...THROUGH 2 AM.

.DISCUSSION...
LACK OF DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HINDER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ALONG THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE
LATE TONIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.