Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
724 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.UPDATE...
INCREASE SHORT TERM POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTD GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSEVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT WHEN
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AT
KDRT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02-06Z. MVFR CIGS
ARE FORECAST AT KDRT OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS
FORECAST BETWEEN 15-16Z TUESDAY. A MODERATE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

DISCUSSION...
THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IS APPROACHING THE BIG BEND. A SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP A MOIST AIRMASS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE TRANS PECOS TO SERRANIAS DEL BURRO
MOUNTAINS. SUPERCELL VECTORS TAKE THESE STORMS EAST INTO PARTS OF
THE VAL VERDE COUNTY FROM PANDALE TO LANGTRY THIS EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOISTURE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFT WEST. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY DUE TO
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT, THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHILE SOME WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DRIFTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS LEADS TO A DRIER SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS A FEW MODELS ALLOW
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND SURFACE BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EAST AT TIMES DUE TO CONSISTENCY IN THOSE MODELS. ELSEWHERE,
THERE ARE NO POPS, HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

HAVE GONE UP TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES, OTHERWISE MAV/MEX TEMPERATURES SEEM
REASONABLE. HPC QPF GUIDANCE ALSO LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  92  70  91  68 /  -   10  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  92  66  93  65 /  -   10  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  93  68  92  65 /  -   10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            68  89  66  90  66 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  87  70  88  72 /  40  30  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  90  67  90  67 /  -   10  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  88  68  91  66 /  30  20  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  92  68  92  66 /  -   10  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  91  68  91  66 /  -   10  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  90  70  90  68 /  10  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  91  69  92  67 /  10  20  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
244 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

TXZ171>173-184>194-202>209-217>225-228-251100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-
COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-
WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
244 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ183-251100-
VAL VERDE-
244 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
VAL VERDE COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
756 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

TXZ184-250145-
EDWARDS-
756 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EDWARDS COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM CDT...

AT 748 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCKSPRINGS...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN EDWARDS COUNTY.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES...LOW WATER
CROSSINGS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ACROSS FLOODED
ROADWAYS.