Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
406 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE HILL COUNTRY IS
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BIG BEND TO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TODAY WHILE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SHOW SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MODELS STILL CONTINUE THEIR LACK OF CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWING A
LACK OF CONSISTENCY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF
BASED ON LAST FEW DAYS. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES, THE FIRST LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND THE OTHER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SURFACE
BOUNDARIES MAY PERSIST FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. WILL
KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR
CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT OUT WEST WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL DEVELOP. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND HPC QPF SEEM REASONABLE WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              89  68  93  68  90 /  30  20  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  89  65  91  66  89 /  30  20  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  67  92  67  91 /  30  20  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            87  66  88  67  88 /  30  20  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  20  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  65  88  67  88 /  30  20  20  20  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  68  91  69  90 /  30  20  20  30  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        89  67  91  68  90 /  30  20  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  67  90  68  88 /  30  20  20  20  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  69  90  70  90 /  30  20  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  69  91  70  91 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
503 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
503 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL OVER ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF CREEKS...
STREAMS...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. ISOLATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A DRIER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.