Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
419 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS BASICALLY AGREE ON THE PATTERN, HOWEVER THE SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES REMAIN INCONSISTENT AND LACK CONSENSUS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. SHORT-WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW
ALOFT OVER TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS DUE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS
WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN MAV/MET IN FAVORING THE WETTER ECMWF. CAPE
AND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND
AGREE WITH SPC SHOWING MAINLY OUT WEST TODAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREATS. PWS UP TO 1.8 INCHES ALSO SUGGESTS A POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES. SOME SPOTS MAY RECEIVE RAINFALL
TOTALS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR
SMALL STREAM AND URBAN TYPE FLOODING. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL GET
LESS THAN ONE INCH. HPC QPF SEEMS REASONABLE. HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED
THE MAV TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. FAVOR THE WETTER CANADIAN,
ECMWF, AND NOGAPS MODELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN MEX WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MEX
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  69  85  69  87 /  40  30  30  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  69  84  68  87 /  40  30  30  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  69  86  69  89 /  40  30  30  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  67  83  68  84 /  40  30  30  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           88  69  88  71  92 /  40  30  20  20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        85  68  82  68  85 /  40  30  30  20  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  69  87  70  90 /  40  30  20  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        87  70  84  70  89 /  40  30  30  20  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   86  71  83  70  87 /  40  30  40  20  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  70  85  71  89 /  40  30  20  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  70  87  71  90 /  40  30  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-141100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
955 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES STATIONARY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE
3 TO 5 INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN ON THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THE HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.