Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1137 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ 5 THSD TO 9 THSD SCT WITH CIGS AT AND ABOVE 10 THSD FT
BKN IS EXPECTED THRU 11Z. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN WAKE
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. AFTER 11Z SCT CLOUDS AT 10 THSD
FT WITH SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT ARE EXPECTED...BECOMING CLEAR
TO SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT AFTER 15Z. WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICKUP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY 15Z...AS A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU
SATURDAY EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010/

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6AM FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT
VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS. THE PACIFIC FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THIS IS PROVIDING TRIGGER TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. 18Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 1500-2000 J/KG
CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THREAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ 4 THSD TO 9 THSD SCT WITH CIGS DEVELOPING ABOVE
10 THSD FT BKN IS EXPECTED THRU 09Z. SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
A LATE APRIL PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AROUND 03Z AT KDRT...AROUND 06Z AT KSAT AND KSSF...AND AROUND
08Z TO 09Z AT KAUS. AFTER 09Z SCT CLOUDS AT 6 THSD TO 10 THSD
FT WITH SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED...
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM GEORGETOWN TO PLEASANTON MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST.
AFTER 11Z CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SCT CLOUDS
ABOVE 10 THSD FT TO CLEAR SKIES AFTER 16Z SATURDAY.
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
BY 15Z...AS A DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU
SATURDAY EVENING...AS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010/

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE UPCOMING 18 HOURS IS STORE AS TWO DISTINCT CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE DRY-LINE
/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A LINE OF
BUILDING CU ALONG THE DRY-LINE AND SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LINE BETWEEN AUSTIN AND CANYON LAKE. A VERY WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DRY-LINE (TEMPERATURES WELL
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S) BODES
WELL FOR MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BALCONES
ESCARPMENT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH). A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL
COUNTRY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THE CONVECTION PUSHING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
(MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW VALUES NEAR 1.5") AND AMPLE ENERGY
ALONG THE FRONT AGAIN POINT TO A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS A BROKEN SQUALL
LINE AND THUS POPS ARE SOMEWHAT MODEST GIVEN THE SCENARIO EVEN
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL
COUNTRY TO SAN ANTONIO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WITH ALL OF THE ACTIVITY
EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOW
ECHOES BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AS WELL. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 0.5"-0.75"...BUT ISOLATED TOTALS OF 1"-1.5"
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS
DRY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS FILTER INTO THE REGION. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S (NEAR 90 SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES) ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS DRY ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL AS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ENABLING A RETURN
OF CLOUDS AND MILDER MORNING TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              59  82  57  80  55 /  70   0  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  59  82  51  81  51 /  70  -   -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     55  84  53  83  53 /  60  -   -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  79  53  79  52 /  50   0  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           53  84  54  85  59 /  40   0  -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        57  79  54  79  54 /  80  -   -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             55  85  51  84  53 /  40   0  -    0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        57  83  54  82  54 /  60   0  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  82  54  81  54 /  70  20  -    0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  83  54  83  56 /  50   0  -    0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           57  85  55  84  55 /  50   0  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/08/22/01/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
935 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE.

A PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE FROM THE WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND EXTEND TO ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

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