Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE INTENSE HEAT AND AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN THE TRIGGER FOR THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED TS. SURFACE OBS SHOW
THAT THE FRONT IS STILL ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 99-103 RANGE THROUGHOUT SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. AS THIS FRONT SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...LOOKING FOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND STRONGER. WITH PLENTY OF HEAT AND DRY AIR TO WORK
WITH...SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE INVERTED V PATTERN WHICH WOULD
INDICATE THE THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. IN FACT...A FEW SVR
WARNINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING/TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 50-60 MPH IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALREADY WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY AS IT GUSTS OUT.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SW TONIGHT AND STILL
BRING LINGERING POP TO THE RIO GRANDE AREA BY WED MORNING. OTHER
AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WILL MAINLY BE DEALING WITH
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON WED. LATER TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WE ARE LOOKING FOR THE GULF TO OPEN UP AND
MOISTURE FROM THE SE TO RETURN AND INCREASE POP DURING THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME
CHANGE WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 90S AND SCT POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  96  73  96  70 /  50  20  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  96  70  97  71 /  50  20  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  97  70  97  71 /  40  20  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  91  68  92  68 /  60  20  10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  91  71  93  71 /  50  50  20  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  95  71  94  70 /  60  20  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  93  70  94  71 /  50  30  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  97  71  96  70 /  50  20  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   74  97  70  95  70 /  40  20  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  95  72  95  71 /  50  30  10  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  96  72  96  72 /  50  30  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

09/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1004 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-251200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1004 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 90S
TO 105. HEAT INDEX VALES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 107 DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE MID RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL
BE ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF I-35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF I-35.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
252 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

TXZ205>207-242045-
BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-
252 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING BEXAR...COMAL AND GUADALUPE
COUNTIES...

AT 252 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR LIVE
OAK...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF UNIVERSAL CITY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN BEXAR...SOUTHERN COMAL AND WESTERN GUADALUPE
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...SELMA...LIVE
OAK...WINDCREST...KIRBY...TERRELL HILLS...ALAMO HEIGHTS...OLMOS PARK
AND SAN ANTONIO...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

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