Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
807 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

.UPDATE...
GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249
WHICH WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
ARE DAMAGING WINDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010/

AVIATION...
INITIAL FORECAST PROBLEM IS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD
THE I35 TERMINALS. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AUS AREA
BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z AND THE SAN ANTONIO AREA AN HOUR OR TWO LATER.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AREA WILL BE THE WORST OF IT WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35KTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND 06Z IN AUS AND 09Z IN SAN
ANTONIO. AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH...AUS WILL SEE MVFR VIS
FROM ABOUT 10Z TO 15Z. SAN ANTONIO WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DON'T EXPECT DRT TO SEE ANY CONVECTION...SO VFR CATEGORY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE STORM TRACK OVER THE ROCKIES CAME FURTHER SOUTH SINCE
THE WEEKEND...THE HEIGHT FIELD FROM 700 TO 300 HPA ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS HAS DECREASE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A 700 TO 300 HPA TROF OVER WEST TEXAS TO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE SEVERE INTO THE EVENING AND LATE NIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVER THE EAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONE ONE QUARTER TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AS THIS RAIN MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT.

EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY THRU THURSDAY EVENING AS THE 700 TO 300 HPA TROF MOVES
TO THE EAST. THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT FORMS TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT THRU
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...IN A SIMILAR PATTERN TO LAST WEEKEND. WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS ALOFT THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW...AS ON FRIDAY SOME
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT COULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE
INCREASES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO LAST WEEKEND. CONTINUED TREND ON WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER
THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR EARLY JUNE ON THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY. FORECAST SOLUTIONS TODAY MAINTAIN RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  90  70  93  73 /  80  30  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  90  67  93  70 /  80  30  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  91  70  93  70 /  80  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  90  70  91  72 /  60  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  93  73  95  73 /  50  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  90  70  91  72 /  60  30  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  91  69  93  72 /  80  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  91  70  93  71 /  80  30  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  88  70  95  72 /  80  40  30  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  90  70  91  73 /  80  20  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  90  70  92  72 /  80  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

13/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
328 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031200-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
328 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
SLOWER MOVING STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS WILL NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

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