River Flood Warning 1, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
613 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN RA WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING
TO VFR TONIGHT DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS DEEP SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER WILL NOT MENTION AT
THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE MASSIVE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG A PREFERRED PATH FROM NEAR CRP AND VCT NORTHWESTWARD TO SAT
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FINER RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE DONE A GOOD
JOB OF IDENTIFYING THIS AREA AS A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT AREA
THROUGH 18-21Z. LATEST FFA UPDATE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS WHERE A
FEW 6+ INCH TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. SINCE MOST OF THE BANDS ARE NOT
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO STORM MOVEMENT...THE IMPACT OF TRAINING CELLS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT FORECASTING HIGHER TOTALS
IN LIGHT OF THE TIGHTER AREAL FOCUS. ALSO...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FFA REMAINS CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING LOCALLIZED FLOODING AS BROAD
AREAS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH RAINS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF
THE WATCH AREA. THE FEW HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS RECEIVED EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOW THE RADAR ESTIMATES PERFORMING WELL OVER SAN ANTONIO
WITH REPORTS OF 2-2.5 INCHES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT PARTS OF ATASCOSA
COUNTY MAY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED NEAR 4 INCHES.

TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH LESS THUNDER AND LIGHTER
RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING...SO THE WATCH IS EXPECTED
TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL STILL REMAIN LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY...WITH THE
DEEPER CONVECTION EXPECT TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES WHILE CLEARING AND A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS FROM
LIGHT NW WINDS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT N WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...SLIGHTLY
WARMER MET GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH AREAS OF FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MOST AREAS SUNDAY MORNING. A FLAT ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...SUGGESTING MORE MILD
WEATHER AND PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS. LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DRAGS
ACROSS THE AREA. NO MAJOR COLD FRONTS OR FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              56  49  60  42  70 / 100  80  20  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  48  59  39  69 / 100  80  20  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     55  47  61  40  67 / 100  80  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            52  43  59  40  65 /  80  70  20  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           56  46  68  41  66 / 100  60  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        53  45  59  41  66 /  90  70  20  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  46  65  37  67 / 100  90  20  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  47  60  39  69 / 100  80  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   57  47  59  40  67 / 100  80  30  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       58  48  64  41  69 / 100  80  20  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           58  47  64  40  70 / 100  90  20  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...
COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

18/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
558 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

TXZ172-173-187-189>194-202>209-217>225-228-161200-
BURNET-WILLIAMSON-BANDERA-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-
KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-
MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-
LAVACA-DIMMIT-
558 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MAINLY BE IN AN AREA FROM
CAMPBELLTON AND CUERO...EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO THE SAN ANTONIO
METROPOLITAN AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ171-183>186-188-161200-
LLANO-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-GILLESPIE-
558 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.