Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
245 PM MDT WED SEP 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OUT WEST DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50'S THIS MORNING...NOW THEY HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 30'S. EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
50'S AND GUESS WHAT...THAT IS WHERE THE CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO
POP UP. THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THOUGH I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY RAIN...IT JUST
DOESN'T LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY AIR ARRIVING WE WILL ALSO
HAVE A RIDGE ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ALL OF THESE
THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP US WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE. THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE
ALOFT AND THERE WILL BE ONLY ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE
SURFACE FOR A FEW WEAK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BY SUNDAY
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGE RETREATING TO THE EAST...BUT THE
DGEX IS SLOWER...KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER HEAD THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
DESPITE THE RIDGE MOVING EAST NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A SURGE OF
MOISTURE COMING UP OUT OF MEXICO. BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE GFS
DOES BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF MOISTURE UP...BUT BY THEN THE ECMWF
HAS BUILT A RIDGE OUT WEST SO THAT IT IS COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE GFS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE MUCH MORE RAIN OUT OF THIS MONSOON SEASON.

LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURES. WELL IF YOU HAVE READ THE DISCUSSION
UP TO THIS POINT YOU PROBABLY CAN GUESS WHAT OUR TEMPERATURE TREND
WILL BE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...YEP MORE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RUN FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOULD BE
A NICE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE DROPS OUR HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOTHING INDICATES WHY THAT WOULD
HAPPEN SO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE WILL SEE MORE HIGHS RUNNING
FOUR TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE LONG WARM SUMMER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 16/00Z-17/00Z...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU PD. ISOLD 5SM TSRA MAINLY EAST OF KELP
POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z. FEW-SCT120-150 AFT 18Z WITH ISOLD 5SM TSRA
EXPECTED AGAIN EAST OF EL PASO COUNTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WHICH WILL LIMIT MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY. ON FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW
AND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
VERY ISOLATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 90 FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  94  69  93  67 /  10  10  10  20  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        66  92  65  90  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES              65  94  65  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              63  92  63  89  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              47  74  47  73  45 /  20  20  20  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  96  67  94  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SILVER CITY             57  90  58  90  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEMING                  67  95  67  94  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               65  98  65  96  62 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

BRICE/GRZYWACZ