Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
224 PM MDT MON JUL 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION IS KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY
LIMITED DESPITE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH MORE MOISTURE
WEST THAN EAST ACROSS THE BORDERLAND...BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
LOWLAND STORMS WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
MODERATE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR LATE
WEEK INCREASES IN MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WILL MEAN MORE
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL...AND BETTER STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS DEEPEST MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH SHOWS DRY AIR MOVING TOWARD THE CWFA FROM
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA. IN FACT
DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY SHALLOW
CU OVER THE SACS...AND ALMOST NO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EASTERN
LOWLANDS. THIS IS DUE TO SOME CAPPING ALOFT SEEN IN THE PROG
SOUNDINGS. FOR PERIOD 1...WE HAVE NO POPS FAR EAST...MINIMAL POPS
EAST...BETTER POPS WEST FOR THIS EVENING.

EXPECTING LESSER PCPN/STORM CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AS THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN LATE TONIGHT. THE WEST HALF OF THE CWFA WILL STILL
BE RELATIVELY MOIST...VS. THE EAST HALF. THUS WILL KEEP SCT MTN
AND ISOLD LOWLAND POPS WEST OF RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
CLIMB TO NEAR 100 OVER THE LOWLANDS. GIVEN REMAINING LOW-LAYER
MOISTURE AND EXTREME SURFACE HEATING EAST OF THE RIVER WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR SOME AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
LATEST MODEL RUN ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE WEST COAST
TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN
ADDITION THEY ARE SLOWING THE EASTWARD RECENTERING OF THE UPPER
HIGH AND KEEPING A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED WEST OVER OUR AREA. THIS
WILL DELAY AND LIKELY DECREASE THE REINTRODUCTION OF MOISTURE BACK
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THUS WE ARE
TRENDING POPS A BIT LOWER EAST FOR WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM UP
WEST.

FRIDAY ONWARD...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BEING TO OUR NORTH...UPPER-
LEVEL E/SE FLOW IS LIKELY TO INCREASE MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
LEVELS FROM THE GULF OVER THE EAST AND THERE ARE HINTS IN THE
MODELS OF POSSIBLE IMPULSES AND WAVES TO MOVE IN LATE WEEK. IT
APPEARS NOW THAT BY FRI...THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE ENTIRE CWFA WILL
HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO WARRANT FAIR TO MODERATE STORM CHANCES
FOR ALL AREAS. INCREASED CLOUDS AND LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/00Z-21/00Z
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GILA WITH ONLY ISOLD
AFTN/EVENING TSRA/SHRA OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. MOSTLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT080-120 SCT-BKN250. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY EXCEPT NEAR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA.

21 - PARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY. AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM HUMIDITY IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S TUESDAY...THEN UP TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY
THURSDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

21 - PARK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 76 100  76  98  74 /  10   0   0  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        70  95  70  93  69 /  10   0   0  10  20
LAS CRUCES              72  99  72  97  70 /  10  10  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              70 100  70  97  67 /  10  10  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              54  78  54  76  52 /  20  20  20  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  97  70  95  67 /  20  20  20  20  30
SILVER CITY             65  90  65  89  60 /  30  30  30  40  40
DEMING                  70  98  70  96  67 /  20  20  20  30  30
LORDSBURG               68  99  68  98  66 /  30  30  30  40  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/21

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
224 PM MDT MON JUL 19 2010

NMZ022-192100-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION NM-
224 PM MDT MON JUL 19 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 300
PM MDT...

AT 221 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF SILVER CITY...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ARENAS VALLEY...
  COBRE...
  FIERRO...
  HANOVER...
  NORTH HURLEY...
  HURLEY...
  FORT BAYARD...
  SANTA CLARA...
  BAYARD...

JMG