Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
322 AM MDT FRI JUL 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MOIST AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS TODAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PUSH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE BORDERLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 55 TO 60 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE AN INCH.
THUS WEAK UPPER WAVE IS NOW CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS AND SATELLITE
DATA SUGGEST ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CAPES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL FURTHER EXPAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH WARM DRIER
AIR AT MID LEVEL ADVECTING INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. IN
ADDITION ANY EMBEDDED WAVES WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED SOUTH WITH THIS
PATTERN. THUS WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECASTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

LARGER SCALE CHANGES IN CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP AFTER MONDAY AS
RATHER DEEP HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST WHILE
UPPER HIGH CENTER REFORMS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT DEEPER
SOUTHEAST FLOW ENSUES WITH ATTENDANT FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
ADVECTING MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA. THUS STARTING
TUESDAY CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN
TEXAS TODAY RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BRING WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA
BORDER. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE FLOWING BACK INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THEREFORE INCREASE LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  74  98  74 100 /  30  20  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        93  66  94  68  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
LAS CRUCES              95  70  97  70  99 /  30  20  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO              94  67  96  69 100 /  30  20  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              70  51  75  51  77 /  30  30  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  67  96  69  98 /  30  20  10  10  10
SILVER CITY             85  62  86  64  89 /  40  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  95  67  97  69  99 /  40  20  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               96  67  99  68  99 /  40  30  20  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 16 2010

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-171715-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1115 AM MDT FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT WILL TRACK
OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN AN INCH IS
LIKELY OVER ISOLATED SPOTS. GENERALLY STORMS WILL FIRST FORM OVER
THE AREA THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LATER DAY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FOCUSED OVER THE DESERTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS THE MAIN THREAT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE LOWLANDS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE. ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS
AND FAR WESTERN LOWLANDS OF SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. DEEP MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN
STORM ACTIVITY IS ON SLATE FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER VIA OUR 800 NUMBER OR TO
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

BIRD