Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
239 PM MDT SUN JUL 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND THE AIRMASS
IS UNSTABLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MANY
OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY. THUS
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT. SOME DRYING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
LESSEN RAIN AND FLOODING CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO
CONTINUE. WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. BY MID WEEK RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES OVER FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING EPZ SOUNDING SHOWED 1.50" OF PW...AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS
SLUNG OVER THE CWFA. DESPITE COOL SURFACE TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER
THE ATMOSPHERE IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. ALOFT THERE IS A WELL
DEFINED TROUGH OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER OVER THE GILA REGION. EAST
1/3RD OF THE CWFA HAS BEEN UNDER THICK CLOUD W/ SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALL MORNING. WEST A LOT MORE SUN. THUS EXPECT BETTER STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING DUE TO STRONGER SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND UPPER TROUGH.
THIS HIGHER POPS WEST VS. EAST. HAVE TO WATCH TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING AS A TIGHT CYCLONIC SPIN OVER CHIHUAHUA CAN BE SEEN
TRACKING NORTH TOWARD THE BORDERLAND.

FOR TOMORROW...MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO OUR NORTH
AND A DRIER NE FLOW ALOFT INTO ALL BUT THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE
CWFA. IN ADDITION AN APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS TX WILL HELP TO
SHOVE MOISTURE WEST AND PROVIDE SOME UPPER SUBSIDENCE TO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL SHOW LOWER POPS
EAST AND HIGHER WEST. TUESDAY'S PATTERN LOOKS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH FROM TX SLOWLY CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST.
HOWEVER A BIT OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT JUST BEFORE THE TROUGH ARRIVES
COULD SPARK A BIT MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE CWFA.

WEDNESDAY THE INVERTED TX TROUGH ARRIVES AND LOOKS TO LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...HELPING TO
INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH A RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL TUE AND WED...BEFORE DROPPING BACK BELOW LATE WEEK WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

FINALLY...NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK OVER TEXAS AND SHOVING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WEST INTO
SOUTHWEST NM AND EASTERN AZ. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE A GRADATION
OF RAIN CHANCE FROM BEST WEST AND LOWER EAST.

14 - BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/00Z-2700Z
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TOUGH...WILL HELP PUSH SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAM BACK AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WESTWARD OVER US
BEGINNING THIS EVENING.  ONE IN PARTICULAR MOVING UP ACROSS WRN
CHIHUAHUA...SHOULD BRING SCT-NMRS +TSRAGS/TOPS430/VSBY 1-3SM/WINDS
VRB 35G50KTS TO HIDALGO/LUNA AND SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES GENLY FROM
01Z TO 06Z. ELSEWHERE ISOLD-SCT +TSRAGS/TOPS400/VSBY 3-5SM/WINDS
25G40KT...WILL BE THE RULE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SUMMER
HEATING. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL GENERALLY TRACK 5-10 MPH FROM SSE-
NNW.

22 - TRIPOLI

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TOUGH...WILL HELP PUSH SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAM BACK AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WESTWARD OVER US
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. ONE IN PARTICULAR MOVING UP ACROSS WRN
CHIHUAHUA...SHOULD BRING SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NM EARLY THIS EVENING. MONDAY SHOULD SEE STORMS
CONCENTRATE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...AS MOISTURE STREAM HEADS
TOWARDS AZ. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE DOWNTURN IN STORM ACTIVITY
AREA-WIDE. AN INCREASE IN STORMS IS EXPECTED LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE. MIN
RH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40%-50% OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND OVER
50% ABOVE 7000 FT. HAINES INDICIES OF 2-3 ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAIN THE SIGNIFICANT
THREATS WITH STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

22 - TRIPOLI

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  90  70  92  71 /  40  20  20  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        64  84  65  86  66 /  40  20  20  10  20
LAS CRUCES              66  89  67  90  68 /  50  30  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              63  89  64  93  64 /  40  20  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              47  69  48  71  48 /  60  30  20  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  88  64  91  64 /  60  30  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             55  80  56  83  57 /  80  40  30  30  30
DEMING                  63  88  64  90  65 /  60  30  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               64  90  65  92  64 /  70  40  30  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ022>025-
     030>032.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

14/BIRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1115 PM MDT SUN JUL 25 2010

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-261730-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1115 PM MDT SUN JUL 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST TEXAS UNTIL 11:00 PM TONIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN EL PASO FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. A DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND TODAY. WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW MOVING. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT WILL MEAN STORMS THAT FORM TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS TWO INCHES
PER HOUR. THE MOST LIKELY ADVERSE IMPACT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY SMALL HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHOVE WEST A BIT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HANG BACK OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWFA TO WARRANT STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUING OVER AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE. A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS TEXAS

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA OUR TOLL FREE LINE.

BIRD