Small Craft Advisory 4, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
203 PM PST MON JAN 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE EARLY TONIGHT THEN
TAPER TO SHOWERS BY EARLY TUE MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 3 TO 4000 FEET...LOWERING TO NEAR 2000 FEET IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE
FOUR COUNTY WARNING AREA AS A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 38N127W
APPROACHES THE REGION. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NAVARRO RIVER IN MENDOCINO COUNTY VAILD FROM 10 PM TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE MORNING. PRECIP ACROSS MEDOCINO COUNTY WILL RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES...IN PRECIP PRONE AREAS. THIS PRECIP WILL
SPREAD THROUGH TRINITY COUNTY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. SEVERAL INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT...WHILE IN HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS IT MAY FALL TO AS LOW AS 2000 FT. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINITY COUNTY THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE THREAT OF SNOW. HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES
WILL ESCAPE THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN AS NRN HUM COUNTY WILL BE
SHADOWED BY CAPE MENDOCINO AND DEL NORTE COUNTY WILL REMAIN W OF
THE PRECIP BULLS EYE. THAT SAID...A FEW TENTHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE N COAST. AFTER TONIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER QUICKLY AS
LOW PRES MOVES THRU AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SLIDE IN FROM THE W.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM
TONIGHT AS SWELL HAS PEAKED AND IS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. BFG

.LONG TERM...FEW CHANGES MADE TO LONG TERM FORECAST EXCEPT TO NUDGE
POPS UPWARD FOR A S/W EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST ON FRI.
ATTM...BEST H5 DYNAMICS FOR SUPPORT PROGGED TO BE FRI AFTN WHILE
SUPPORT FROM A 130KT JET REMAINS WELL TO OUR S AND W. THIS
REPRESENTS THE LAST VERY CLEAR CHC FOR PRECIP FOR THE FORSEEABLE
FUTURE AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND THE NEXT
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION GETS UNDERWAY. AS A RESULT...MODEL
DISAGREEMENT INCREASES IN THE LONG TERM. GFS ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BEYOND THE FCST PD...AS THEY CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A PATTERN REMINISCENT OF LATE DEC WITH
POTENTIAL FOR S STREAM TO UNDERCUT A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE PAC NW INTO THE HIGH LATITUDES. CLARK

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS.
RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST
AND A LITTLE LATER FOR INTERIOR REGIONS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
TUE MORNING AS LINGERING MOISTURE...CALM WINDS...AND CLEARING ARE
AMPLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TH

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. LARGE WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT. A MODERATE WEST SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FEET WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STORM WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
BUILDING WEST SWELL LATE IN THE WEEK. TH

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET
     FOR THE CAZ004.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY PZZ450-455-470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
     PZZ455-475.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
319 PM PST MON JAN 25 2010

CAZ002-261430-
MENDOCINO COAST-
319 PM PST MON JAN 25 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NAVARRO RIVER AT NAVARRO...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEST SWELL OF 19 TO 21 FT AT 16 SECONDS IS AND WILL BE PRODUCING
WAVES OF 22 TO 24 FEET INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHER SETS ARE
POSSIBLE.

THE NAVARRO RIVER AT NAVARRO IS FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE
BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 26.0 FT LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN SUBSIDE BY EARLY TUE MORNING.
AT 23.0 FEET FLOODING OF HIGHWAY 128 APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES FROM
HIGHWAY 1 IS CERTAIN AND THE ROAD WILL BE CLOSED. MOTORISTS SHOULD
USE ALTERNATE ROUTES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA AND/OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

CAZ004-262245-
UPPER TRINITY RIVER-
319 PM PST MON JAN 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION UP TO 7 INCHES ABOVE 4000 FEET. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2000 TO 4000 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE REFER TO WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA AND/OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.